UFC Shanghai Prediction Markets, Picks & Predictions

Two top-10 bantamweight contenders collide in the main event, headlining a Shanghai card loaded with rematches, home fighters, and heavy betting favorites. Here’s every pick and prediction for this weekend’s UFC Shanghai main card.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong — Bantamweight Main Event

Umar Nurmagomedov enters as a commanding favorite in this main event, and the prediction markets are even more bullish than the sportsbooks, Kalshi’s most liquid market on the entire card has him trading at $0.85. Nurmagomedov (20-1) brings elite wrestling and suffocating grappling that has made him nearly impossible to solve, and Kalshi’s method-of-victory breakdown gives him a 61% chance of winning by decision alone, more than his knockout and submission paths combined.

Song Yadong (22-8-1) enters as live underdog but carries real finishing equity of his own, having stopped Deiveson Figueiredo in his most recent outing, the exact type of finish that Nurmagomedov himself couldn’t replicate against the same opponent.

Despite that head-to-head data point working in Song’s favor narratively, the betting markets have overwhelmingly sided with Nurmagomedov’s superior overall body of work and control-based approach. Kalshi’s round-based markets suggest this goes long, giving just a 25% chance of the fight ending before Round 3, reinforcing the expectation of a grinding, decision-heavy affair.

Nurmagomedov is expected to go in and use his distance management to stay out of boxing range, and once Song overcommits on his strikes, he will then level change and dominate him on the mat en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov (-620) by decision

Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes

Yan Xiaonan fights in front of her home crowd in this strawweight co-main event, and while she’s coming off a defeat in her most recent outing, sportsbooks and prediction markets have consistently favored her at close to -150 all week. The Chinese veteran’s finishing rate of 47% trails Gomes’s own impressive 58%, a stat that adds some intrigue to a matchup where the betting favorite doesn’t hold the clear finishing advantage.

Denise Gomes enters riding a four-fight winning streak, and her superior finishing rate combined with underdog status at ++130 makes her one of the more interesting live-dog plays on this entire main card.

The over/under sitting at 2.5 rounds with the over priced around -310 suggests the market expects this to extend past the midpoint of the fight, giving Gomes ample opportunity to find the finish that has defined her recent run. Given her finishing rate advantage and the plus-money value still available across most books, Gomes represents legitimate value against a home fighter who’s seemingly lost a step at age 37.

Pick: Denise Gomes (+130)

Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura

Kai Asakura enters this bantamweight bout as a decisive favorite across every platform tracking the fight, with FanDuel, Kalshi, and Polymarket all converging in the -490/+380 range and roughly an 80% implied win probability. That kind of alignment across sportsbooks and prediction markets is a strong signal of consensus rather than a mispriced line, and it reflects genuine respect for Asakura’s resume. The former Rizin bantamweight champion brings some of the heaviest hands in the division, along with proven finishing instincts against high-level competition on the biggest stages in Japanese MMA.

Aoriqileng, fighting in front of a partisan home crowd in China, brings durability and crowd energy into this matchup, but his path to victory likely requires surviving Asakura’s power early and dragging him into deep waters. Kalshi’s round-of-victory market reinforces the danger Asakura poses, giving him a combined 81% chance of finishing inside the distance.

Expect Asakura to come out firing in the opening minutes of the fight and once he lands something flush on Aoriqileng, he’s putting him away and early to extend his winning streak to two in a row at UFC Shanghai.

Pick: Kai Asakura (-388) by KO/TKO

Sumudaerji vs. Alex Perez

This is a rematch fight following a previous no-contest result between these two flyweights, and Sumudaerji enters as the clear favorite this time around at -215. Fighting in front of a partisan Chinese crowd, Sumudaerji’s power and home-field advantage have been priced heavily into this line, with the implied probability settling around 65% to 67% across both prediction markets.

Alex Perez (26-10, 1 NC) is looking to settle unfinished business after the no-contest result in their first meeting, and his own significant strike output and reach could give him a path back into this fight if he can avoid Sumudaerji’s power early. The round total market favors the under at 2.5 rounds priced around -122, suggesting books expect this rematch to end more decisively than the inconclusive first encounter.

Given the consistency of the line across every platform and the finality this fight needs after the previous no-contest, Sumudaerji’s home advantage and power edge make him the stronger side to officially get the win over Perez this weekend.

Pick: Sumudaerji (-215)

Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Liu Ce enters this light heavyweight bout as the favorite on home soil, with pricing at -184, giving him an implied win probability in the 61% to 63% percent range. Kalshi’s method-of-victory market shows real confidence in his finishing ability specifically via strikes, pricing a KO/TKO/DQ win for Liu at 57% well above any single outcome tied to his opponent.

Levi Rodrigues Jr. enters at 5-1 with one no-contest, and his professional wins have largely come by way of finish, giving him a puncher’s chance even as the betting underdog at +154. The round total split is telling here, the under 1.5 rounds sits at -210 while the over sits at +160.

This fight boils down to who can land the cleaner shots, and from the looks of how technical Liu has looked in his fights, we can expect him to land on Rodrigues early and often, potentially putting him away early in his UFC debut.

Pick: Liu Ce (-184) by KO/TKO

Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas — Flyweight

Bilal Hasan enters this flyweight opener as the single biggest favorite on the entire main card, with both fighters carrying perfect professional records into the cage yet the betting markets showing an enormous gap in perceived skill level. Hasan’s price has moved consistently in his favor throughout fight week, tightening from an opening line near -500 all the way to -820 by the time the card approached, according to line-tracking data across multiple sportsbooks.

Nilson Rojas enters undefeated as well, but the significant gap between the two men’s respective levels of competition appears to be driving this substantial line, with implied win probability for Hasan settling around 85% across both Kalshi and Polymarket. The round total market backs an expectation of sustained pressure from Hasan, with the over 1.5 rounds priced at -154 compared to the under at +120, suggesting the market anticipates Hasan needing some time to fully break down Rojas before finding the finish.

Expect Hasan to pick up where he left off on Dana White’s Contender Series Week 1 less than a few weeks ago and score another highlight-reel finish on Rojas, putting the flyweight division on notice.

Pick: Bilal Hasan (-820) by KO/TKO