UFC Edmonton Picks, Odds & Predictions
Joaquin Buckley and Mike Malott meet in a five-round welterweight main event at Rogers Place in Edmonton, with Malott fighting in front of a home crowd. The card sets a UFC record with 12 Canadians competing, and the main card has two ranked-fighter showdowns and four bouts that could end early.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott
| Platform | Buckley | Malott |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 55% |
| Polymarket | 46% | 55% |
| FanDuel | +112 | -142 |
Buckley is 21-8 and Malott is 14-2-1. Both are top-15 welterweights, and they have fought in different ways to get there. Buckley’s best route is explosive offense. He fights in sudden, powerful bursts, and his entire game is built to punish anyone who lingers in front of him. He wants to turn rounds into exchanges, feint with his lead hand, and then jump in behind spinning kicks, overhand rights and left hooks.
Buckley’s best moments will come when Malott has to retreat. The key for Buckley is making sure Malott spends as much of the fight as possible reacting rather than dictating. Malott has to choose between standing his ground and backing away, and Buckley’s athleticism makes both choices uncomfortable. If Buckley connects with a clean counter early, he can take over quickly.
Malott’s path is more methodical. He is the longer, more technical striker in a straight line, and he wins by controlling space with a steady jab, a sharp front kick and tidy combinations. He can also change levels and use his grappling to take the sting out of Buckley’s bursts. The key for him is to make Buckley uncomfortable in every phase without chasing a knockout.
If Malott can mix a takedown threat into his striking, Buckley has to defend in two directions. That is where Malott’s patience should pay off. The home crowd will give him energy in the early rounds, but it is the fifth round where his conditioning and discipline matter most. Over 25 minutes, the fighter who stays composed and keeps scoring without taking big risks should come out ahead.
Expect Buckley to land at least one big moment, probably in the first or second round. Malott has to survive those spots and not let them change his game plan. If he does, his volume and takedown mix should win the middle rounds and open a clear lead on the scorecards.
Pick: Mike Malott
Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
| Platform | Blanchfield | Jasudavicius |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 76% | 25% |
| Polymarket | 76% | 25% |
| FanDuel | -350 | +255 |
Erin Blanchfield (14-2) is a 27-year-old title contender, and her fight with Jasmine Jasudavicius (15-4) could determine a challenger at flyweight. Blanchfield is a suffocating grappler, and her game is built on forcing opponents to defend in the clinch and on the mat. She wins by closing distance behind her hands, locking up a body lock and putting her opponent on her back.
Once she is on top, Blanchfield looks to pass the guard and hunt for the back, which is where she is most dangerous. She does not need many takedowns, only enough control time to take rounds and wear Jasudavicius down. Her best path is a pace that never lets the Canadian get comfortable. If she keeps the pressure on, she can make this a long, grinding fight.
Jasudavicius has a real path too. She is a seasoned veteran with good judo and a patient style, and she is comfortable in scrambles. She wins by keeping Blanchfield from settling into position, using hip movement and underhooks to get back to her feet. On the feet she has to mix short combinations with level changes so Blanchfield cannot sit on her single-leg entries.
The home crowd should give Jasudavicius a boost, and her best moments will come when she turns clinch exchanges into throws. The problem is that she has to do that repeatedly against one of the most relentless grapplers in the division. Over three rounds, Blanchfield’s top control and conditioning should decide the scorecards, and she has the submission skills to finish if Jasudavicius gives up her back.
I expect Jasudavicius to win some scrambles in the first round and make it competitive. By the middle of the second round, Blanchfield’s pressure should tell. She will start landing short elbows from top position and force Jasudavicius to expose her back or neck.
Pick: Erin Blanchfield
Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Perez
| Platform | Nelson | Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 25% | 76% |
| Polymarket | 25% | 76% |
| FanDuel | +285 | -400 |
Cristian Perez (15-2) makes his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a knockout of Logan Paxton. Kyle Nelson (17-7-1) is the veteran, and he has been knocked out in two of his last three fights. That history frames the fight, because Nelson’s durability is the key question.
Perez wins by attacking early. He is a heavy-handed Mexican striker who pressures with intent, and his first goal is to find Nelson’s chin before the veteran can settle into a rhythm. His path is to cut off the cage, throw a stiff jab to set the range, and then follow with power hooks and straight rights. A debut fighter can be nervous, but Perez’s finishing instincts give him a major edge in the first round.
If Perez is patient, he can break Nelson down with body shots and calf kicks first. That would slow Nelson’s movement and give Perez the room to land the finishing blow. Perez must avoid overcommitting on single power punches, because Nelson is dangerous when he catches a lunging opponent. A disciplined, step-by-step approach will do far more for him than a wild early flurry.
Nelson’s path is experience and craft. He is a tall, lanky striker who is at his best when he keeps opponents on the end of his jab and works the leg kick. He has to make the first round long and technical and make Perez miss. If Nelson can survive the opening minutes, he can start landing counters as Perez pushes forward.
Nelson also has to be mindful of getting stuck in the pocket. His best path is to use his length and footwork to keep Perez on the outside and force him to chase. Nelson can also look for takedowns if Perez gets too aggressive, since a debutant is rarely comfortable defending them. But the risk of taking one clean shot is always present, and it makes this a dangerous night for Nelson.
I expect Perez to start fast and land the first meaningful damage in the opening round. Nelson will try to survive and counter, but Perez’s pressure and power should compound. The finish comes when Nelson’s chin gives way under a combination.
Pick: Cristian Perez
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Kyle Daukaus
| Platform | Barriault | Daukaus |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 36% | 64% |
| Polymarket | 37% | 64% |
| FanDuel | +162 | -210 |
Marc-Andre Barriault (17-11) of Gatineau, Quebec, looks to earn a bonus for the fourth straight fight, and he is a fighter who almost always makes things entertaining. Kyle Daukaus (16-5) is the more technical grappler, and this is a clash of a brawler against a fighter who wants to take control. That contrast should make for a lively middleweight fight.
Barriault wins by turning this into a brawl. He is a durable, high-pressure fighter who is at his best when he can walk forward and throw heavy hooks. His path is to make Daukaus uncomfortable with hard body shots and then follow with the left hook. He also has to avoid long stretches on the mat, so staying out of bad positions is as important as landing his own power.
The key for Barriault is making the fight chaotic. If he can get Daukaus to trade, his hand speed and punching power could produce a knockout. He must be careful, however, to not get taken down early and spend rounds defending. His best moments will come from keeping the fight standing and making Daukaus respect every exchange.
Daukaus wins by blending striking and grappling. He is a skilled submission fighter who can find a choke from nearly any position, and he is comfortable in scrambles. His path is to use the jab to set up level changes, take the fight to the mat, and work toward the back. Once he gets there, he is a threat to finish with a rear-naked choke or guillotine.
Daukaus will need to be disciplined about when to shoot. If he shoots from too far away, Barriault can counter with a knee or uppercut. The better plan is to wait for Barriault to commit with a hook, then change levels and drive him into the fence. With top position, Daukaus can take rounds even if he does not finish.
I expect Barriault to make a strong start and land a few heavy shots. Daukaus should survive those and start getting takedowns as the fight goes on. Once he is on top, his submission threat should drain Barriault, and a finish becomes increasingly likely in the second half of the fight.
Pick: Kyle Daukaus
Louis Jourdain vs. Timmy Cuamba
| Platform | Jourdain | Cuamba |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 62% | 39% |
| Polymarket | 60% | 41% |
| FanDuel | -194 | +150 |
Louis Jourdain (9-3) and Timmy Cuamba (10-4) are bantamweights who both want to be known for their finishing ability. This looks like a fast-paced fight between two fighters who are comfortable in exchanges. The edge will likely go to whoever controls range better.
Jourdain wins with his length and timing. He is a tall bantamweight who can use his reach to keep Cuamba on the outside, and his jab is his key tool. His path is to establish the jab early, mix in front kicks to the body, and then look for a counter right hand when Cuamba comes forward. If he stays disciplined, he can make Cuamba pay for each entry.
Jourdain also has to watch his defense. Cuamba is dangerous when he gets close, so Jourdain must avoid standing still and trading hooks. His best approach is to move laterally, score from the outside and finish with combinations when Cuamba slows down. That approach should also help him stay out of dangerous grappling situations.
Cuamba wins by closing the distance and making the fight messy. He is a gritty, aggressive fighter who is at his best when he can force a brawl. His path is to cut off the cage, attack the body and look for takedowns when Jourdain is on his back foot. If he gets inside, he can use short punches and clinch work to wear Jourdain down.
Cuamba’s path to an upset runs through the second and third rounds. Pressure fighters often thrive as opponents tire, and a long bantamweight can lose his range as the fight goes on. Cuamba should invest in leg kicks early, because they can slow Jourdain’s movement and make it easier to close the gap later.
I expect a competitive first round with Cuamba pushing hard. Jourdain’s jab and range should win exchanges, and he should start to pull away in the second round. Over three rounds, his cleaner striking and better distance management should earn the decision.
Pick: Louis Jourdain
Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr
| Platform | Nallo | Landwehr |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 72% | 29% |
| Polymarket | 73% | 29% |
| FanDuel | -310 | +230 |
Mandel Nallo (14-4) faces Nate Landwehr (18-8) in a lightweight fight between two aggressive strikers. Landwehr is a durable veteran who has made his career out of fighting at a relentless pace. Nallo is the fresher, more technical fighter, and this is a matchup where technique has to beat volume.
Nallo wins by staying composed and picking his shots. He is the more precise striker, and his best weapon is a sharp, accurate jab. His path is to keep the fight at range, mix in leg kicks, and then counter with clean combinations as Landwehr presses forward. If Nallo avoids getting dragged into a brawl, his technique should make a big difference over three rounds.
Nallo also has the option to mix in takedowns when Landwehr overcommits. That would force Landwehr to defend in multiple phases, and it would slow down the pace of the fight. The key for Nallo is to keep his hands up on the way out of every exchange. If he does, he can land the cleaner shots and take control of the middle rounds.
Landwehr wins by dragging the fight into deep water. He is a relentless, high-volume striker who is at his best when the fight becomes a street fight. His path is to walk forward, throw looping hooks and attack the body, and take Nallo out of his comfort zone. He is also dangerous in scrambles and on the mat, so he can mix in grappling to add another dimension.
Landwehr’s best chance is to turn this into a fight that never slows down. He should invest in the body early and make Nallo pay for every clean shot he lands. If Nallo starts to fade, Landwehr’s pressure becomes more dangerous with every round. But the veteran must avoid walking into counter shots, since that is where Nallo is most effective.
I expect a fast pace in the first round, with Landwehr taking the initiative. Nallo should settle in during the second round and begin landing his jab and counters at will. By the third round, his accuracy and composure should give him a clear lead, and he may hurt Landwehr late.
Prediction: Mandel Nallo defeats Nate Landwehr by unanimous decision.
Pick: Mandel Nallo