▼- Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated and legal in all 50 states plus Washington, DC
- Kalshi leads with over 350,000 active markets across sports, politics, crypto, economics, and more
- Unlike sportsbooks, you set your own odds and can sell positions before the event settles
- Top welcome bonuses: Kalshi's $10 free trade, FanDuel's $25 offer, and Polymarkets' $20 in Prediction Dollars
- UFC Freedom 250 at the White House (June 14, 2026) is shaping up to be the highest-volume combat sports prediction market event of the year
Prediction markets are online platforms that allow you to bet on the outcomes of a variety of circumstances and events, including sports. These exchanges are regulated by the United States Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making them legal in all 50 states plus Washington, DC.
The best of these platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, have become popular thanks to their depth of coverage — Kalshi alone lists over 350,000 active markets across sports, politics, economics, and crypto. This guide covers how to get started, how to trade, and how to make the most of the promotions on offer.
Best prediction market apps and promos
One commonality between prediction markets and traditional online sportsbooks is that both offer promotions, especially if you're new. We have reviewed bonuses from many of the popular regulated prediction market sites for their potential value, ease of access, and the diversity of event contracts available.
| App | Bonus offer | Promo code | Markets available |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Trade $10, get $10 free | RATE | Sports, politics, crypto, economics, culture, climate, mentions, companies |
| Polymarket US | Get $20 with exclusive code | RATE | Sports only (limited beta; politics, crypto, and culture coming) |
| FanDuel Predicts | $25 for new users | No code required | Sports (select states), economics, financials, crypto |
| DraftKings Predicts | Trade $5, get $50 in Prediction Dollars | No code required | Sports, economics, financials |
| OG.com | $100 Profit Boost (up to $20/day) | No code, use exclusive link | Sports, politics, economics, crypto, culture |
How each prediction market site compares
Various CFTC-regulated exchanges offer different experiences to suit different types of traders. Every recommended app below covers major US sports including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and MMA, with soccer, golf, and tennis available on select platforms.
Top recommendations
| Platform | Key feature | Honest catch | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Deep data tools included in membership. Strong reputation for market variety, including niche sports and less popular events. | Sports dominates volume, but crypto and politics markets carry plenty of liquidity too — the catch is that truly niche or lower-profile markets can still be thinly traded. | People who prioritize high liquidity and the strongest selection of markets. |
| Polymarket | Strong sports offerings and no trading fees, thanks to investments from the Intercontinental Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. | Restricted to sports contracts in the US; users can only buy/sell with USD Stablecoin. | Users who highly value fee-free trading and the best available technology. |
| FanDuel Predicts | CME Group infrastructure powers a responsive platform with heavy sports emphasis. | Markets for sporting events vary from state to state. | Casual and novice traders who want to work with a familiar brand. |
| DraftKings Predicts | Financial markets augment the sports-dominant contract selection. | A flat $0.02 fee per contract bought or sold compounds quickly at volume — at $50,000 traded, you’re paying over $1,000 in fees with no volume discount. | People who want to leverage DraftKings’ sports expertise. |
| OG | Most-trusted market for cryptocurrency price target contracts with $0.02 per trade commission. | Available everywhere except New York; withdrawals currently limited to ACH bank transfer only. | People looking for value in undervalued contract margins. |
Secondary platforms
| Platform | Available jurisdictions | Ideal for | Things to note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto.com | 45 states and Washington, DC | People experienced with trading cryptocurrencies who already hold crypto assets. | Over 350 cryptocurrencies to choose from with instant withdrawals. No signup bonus. |
| Robinhood | 41 states and Washington, DC | People who want prediction markets and stock market trading in one platform. | $0.01 fee on sports trades with contracts sourced from Kalshi/ForecastEx. |
| Fanatics Markets | 24 states and Washington, DC | Traders familiar with Fanatics who want to earn Fanatics ONE rewards. | Participation limited to users 21 and older. Markets include entertainment, politics, and sports. |
| PredictIt | All 50 states plus Washington, DC | People interested in politics and political forecasting. | PredictIt only offers politics markets. |
| Sporttrade | Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, and Virginia | Users who want a true exchange experience. | Market application still pending with the CFTC. |
| Novig | 35 states + DC | People who enjoy sweepstakes-based sportsbooks. | Hybrid prediction market and sweepstakes sportsbook with a 1x playthrough requirement for prize redemption. |
How prediction markets work
A prediction market is akin to a stock exchange, wherein people buy, sell, and trade positions in event contracts. These contracts are tied to outcomes in events like sports.
Each market specifies the event and the particular circumstances that will determine how the market settles, in a yes/no format. For example, you might come across a market asking whether the Seattle Seahawks will score three touchdowns in a particular game, with the choice to back "yes" or "no."
Unlike a traditional sportsbook, you set the "odds" on each market based on how confident you are in your prediction, expressed through how much money you put behind a position. Additionally, these exchanges are regulated by the CFTC instead of state or tribal gaming authorities.
How prediction market trading works
On a prediction market, you can buy, sell, and trade contracts, with firm caps on the number of contracts available for each event.
Sports example: MLB
Suppose you invest in a market connected to whether Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki will record at least four strikeouts in a specific game. The prices for contracts in such a market normally rest between $0.01 and $0.99, with demand for those contracts affecting the price. Suppose the price you obtained on the "yes" side of the market was $0.14 and you bought 100 contracts.
If Sasaki hits that number during the game, you receive $1 for each successful contract. Your payout would be $100, meaning you make $86 in gains after deducting the $14 you spent to buy the contracts.
Sports example: UFC
UFC Freedom 250 — scheduled for June 14, 2026, on the South Lawn of the White House — illustrates how prediction market contracts work in a high-profile combat sports context. Suppose you find a market on Kalshi asking whether Ilia Topuria will successfully defend his lightweight title against Justin Gaethje. Early in fight week, with limited activity, the "yes" contracts are priced at $0.62 reflecting Topuria's status as favorite. You purchase 50 contracts for $31 total.
As the week progresses and footage of Topuria's camp surfaces showing sharp wrestling defense against Gaethje's takedown attempts, demand for the "yes" side rises and contracts climb to $0.74. You now have the choice to sell your 50 contracts for roughly $37 — locking in a $6 gain before the fight even happens — or hold through the event hoping for the full $1 payout per contract. If Topuria defends and the market settles in your favor, your 50 contracts return $50, a $19 gain on your $31 investment.
Selling and trading positions
Getting in on markets early can be to your advantage because as demand rises, prices rise with it, and your potential gains reduce in value. If a market is moving in a direction you don't like, or you lose confidence in your position, you can choose to sell or trade your contracts as long as the market is still open. This flexibility to exit a position mid-market is one of the key advantages prediction markets hold over a traditional sportsbook, where your stake is locked until the final outcome.
UFC Freedom 250: a marquee prediction market event
UFC Freedom 250, scheduled for June 14, 2026, on the South Lawn of the White House, is shaping up to be one of the highest-volume prediction market events of the year. The six-fight card is headlined by Ilia Topuria defending the lightweight title against Justin Gaethje, with Alex Pereira challenging Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title in the co-main event.
The card airs on Paramount+ with no pay-per-view required, and the White House setting — the first professional sports event ever held there — will drive significant mainstream attention to combat sports markets. Kalshi and Polymarket both have futures odds on the card already, with additional markets expected closer to fight night.
For traders, high-profile events like this tend to generate the most liquidity, tightest spreads, and the best early-entry opportunities before the broader public moves prices closer to fight night.
How to sign up for a prediction market site
In most cases, you can start trading in just a few minutes. There are usually six steps to the process:
Registration is normally when prediction markets offer their most valuable user bonuses, so have any necessary promotional codes ready when you sign up. These bonuses can help you get comfortable on the sites and make your first transactions smoother.
How to deposit and withdraw
The experience of depositing and withdrawing funds varies based on the exchange and the payment methods you choose. Each market sets its own policies for accepted payment methods and any associated fees.
Depositing
This process normally involves five steps and may complete in just a few seconds:
Withdrawing
Note that prediction markets may limit withdrawal options compared to deposit choices, and verification of requests may take several days.
Payment methods by platform
Each of the top prediction market platforms has its own deposit and withdrawal infrastructure. The table below covers the accepted methods and maximum withdrawal limits for our top five recommended partners.
| Platform | Deposit methods | Deposit fees | Withdrawal methods | Max withdrawal | Withdrawal fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | ACH, debit card, Apple/Google Pay, wire transfer, USDC crypto | Free (ACH, wire, crypto); 2% (debit/Apple/Google Pay) | ACH, debit card, crypto | $2,500/day (debit); unlimited (ACH/wire) | $2 flat per withdrawal |
| Polymarket US | Debit/credit card, ACH, wire transfer, USDC/crypto | None (platform-side); gas fees on crypto; third-party card ramp fees vary | Debit card, ACH, wire transfer | No stated limit | None (platform-side) |
| FanDuel Predicts | Debit card, online banking (ACH) | None | Debit card, ACH | No stated limit | None (2% transaction fee on payouts and early cash-outs) |
| DraftKings Predicts | Online banking, debit/credit card, PayPal, Venmo, Apple Pay, wire transfer, VIP Preferred (ACH), Play+, cash at cage | None | Online banking, debit card, PayPal, Venmo, wire transfer, Play+, check, cash at cage | $100,000 (bank); $60,000 (PayPal); $25,000 (debit) | None ($5 fee for paper check) |
| OG | ACH, instant bank transfer (Plaid), debit card, Apple/Google Pay, Venmo, wire transfer, crypto via Crypto.com (350+ tokens) | Free (ACH, wire); 1.49% (debit/Apple/Google Pay); 1.99% (Venmo) | ACH only | $100,000/day (5 withdrawals max); $500,000/month (30 withdrawals max) | None |
Kalshi locks deposited funds for seven days before they are eligible for withdrawal. Debit card deposits are available for trading immediately but carry a 2% processing fee.
Polymarket US operates on USDC stablecoin, so card deposits go through a third-party on-ramp that charges its own fees. Depositing directly via your crypto wallet is always cheaper.
FanDuel Predicts operates a separate wallet from other FanDuel products, so you can’t share funds across the sportsbook or daily fantasy apps. The platform removed credit cards in March 2026 and currently only supports debit card and ACH, with PayPal, Venmo, and Apple Pay not yet available. FanDuel Predicts also charges a 2% transaction fee on payouts and early cash-outs, which functions differently from a withdrawal fee but has the same effect on net returns.
OG currently limits all withdrawals to ACH bank transfer only, which is free but slower than the card and PayPal options competitors offer — a gap the platform has acknowledged but not yet addressed.
Are prediction markets legal?
Prediction markets are regulated as derivatives by the US federal government, specifically the CFTC and the Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC). That makes them legal to operate in as far as they remain in compliance with regulations overseen by those agencies.
The core legal question is whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws — and federal courts have reached conflicting conclusions on that question across multiple circuits. The CFTC has filed an amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, and legal analysts widely expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court, with a resolution timeline of 2027 or 2028.
Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks
Prediction markets offer a fundamentally different experience than traditional online sportsbooks. Some people prefer prediction markets; others use both.
| Factor | Prediction markets | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Market types | Yes/No contracts on a variety of events, expanding beyond sports | Action limited to sports, with variety restricted by state rules |
| Odds/pricing | Set by users’ demand for contracts | Set by the sportsbook |
| Transparency | Full market history including price movement and transaction volume is accessible | Sportsbooks do not divulge their processes for setting and moving lines |
| Regulation | US CFTC and SEC | State gaming regulatory bodies |
Free vs. paid prediction market tools
You'll need to evaluate the advantages of paid analytics tools against your trading volume and the benefit you perceive from the proposition. Several platforms like Kalshi give you free access to analytics that may be all you need.
The core consideration is that paying for analytics eats into your gains. If a tool isn't leading to markedly better returns, it may not be worth the cost. Look at the free and paid options for your platform and evaluate based on depth of data available and ease of use.
Using AI tools for prediction market trading
A growing ecosystem of tools has emerged specifically for prediction market traders. The most useful fall into a few categories.
Analytics dashboards like Oddpool and Verso aggregate real-time data across Kalshi and Polymarket simultaneously — showing live odds, order book depth, liquidity, and price history in a single view. Polyseer takes it a step further, using multi-agent AI and Bayesian probability aggregation to generate research reports on specific markets with confidence scores.
Mispricing detectors like Predly scan Kalshi and Polymarket continuously for contracts where the market price diverges from AI-calculated probability estimates. The platform claims 89% accuracy on its alerts, making it useful for identifying entry points before prices correct.
Arbitrage tools compare the same contract across platforms in real time. When Kalshi and Polymarket are both pricing a market, discrepancies between the two can be traded risk-free. Cross-platform arbitrage bots have extracted over $40 million in profits from prediction markets in a single year, though competition has compressed margins significantly.
Whale and activity trackers like PolyTrack monitor large positions and fresh wallets making significant bets. Since prediction markets are transparent by design, following informed money before it moves prices is a legitimate edge.
Autonomous agents are the newest category. Polystrat, built on the Olas protocol, trades Polymarket positions 24/7 on behalf of users with no manual input required. Within its first month it executed over 4,200 trades, and data suggests AI agents outperform human traders — over 37% of Polystrat agents show positive P&L compared to less than half that rate for human participants on the same platform.
The caveat applies across all of them: automation tools compete against each other as much as against human traders, and the most obvious arbitrage opportunities close fast. These tools work best as a way to stay informed and identify opportunities — not as a replacement for your own read on an event.
Frequently Asked Questions
A prediction market site is a federally regulated platform where you buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes. On Kalshi, for example, you can trade on whether the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting, whether a specific NBA team will win a game, or whether gold will close above a price target — all as binary yes/no contracts priced between $0.01 and $0.99.
Yes. Prediction markets are regulated as derivatives by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act, which gives them a federal legal basis in all 50 states. The core legal question — whether federal law preempts state gaming regulations — is working through four federal circuit courts simultaneously and is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court, with analysts putting a resolution at 2027 or 2028.
It depends on how you trade. Kalshi is the best choice for liquidity and market depth, with over 350,000 active markets. Polymarket offers the lowest trading fees at 0.10% on taker orders. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predicts are the strongest options if you're coming from a sportsbook background. OG is built for traders who are already active in the Crypto.com ecosystem.
You buy a yes or no contract on a specific outcome, priced to reflect the market's implied probability. A contract trading at $0.30 on Kalshi implies a 30% chance of that outcome occurring. If you're right, the contract settles at $1. If you're wrong, it settles at $0. You can also sell your position before settlement if the market moves in your favor.
Kalshi and Polymarket are available in all 50 states plus Washington, DC. OG is available everywhere except New York. DraftKings Predicts operates in 38 states and FanDuel Predicts is available nationwide, though sports contracts on both are restricted to states without legal sports betting.
On a prediction market like Kalshi, you set the price by trading against other users, and the full order book and price history are visible to everyone. On a sportsbook like DraftKings or FanDuel, the operator sets and moves the lines without disclosing how or why — and your stake is locked until the outcome resolves.
Yes. Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel Predicts, and DraftKings Predicts all operate in California, Florida, and Texas — states where there is no legal online sportsbook — because prediction markets are regulated federally by the CFTC rather than by state gaming authorities.
Kalshi has a $1 minimum via ACH bank transfer. FanDuel Predicts requires a $5 minimum. DraftKings Predicts starts at $5. OG starts at $1 for standard ACH or $10 for instant transfers. Polymarket has no stated minimum but requires a crypto wallet or card on-ramp to fund your account.
Polymarket has the lowest trading fees, charging 0.10% on taker orders with maker orders free. Kalshi's formula-based fee averages around 1.2% of contract value. DraftKings Predicts and FanDuel Predicts both charge a flat $0.02 per contract, which compounds quickly at volume — at $50,000 traded, you're paying over $1,000 in fees with no discount.
Go to the cashier or account section of your app, select a withdrawal method, and submit the request. Processing times vary: Kalshi debit card withdrawals clear in about 30 minutes, while ACH bank transfers typically take one to three business days. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predicts process most withdrawals within one to two business days.
Mention markets are prediction contracts tied to whether a specific person will say a specific word or phrase in a defined context — a speech, press conference, interview, or social media post. On Kalshi, for example, you might find a market asking whether the Fed Chair will use the word "transitory" during a press conference. They sit at the intersection of political trading and cultural prediction, and tend to generate high volume around scheduled events where the script is uncertain.
Yes. UFC Freedom 250 on June 14, 2026, is one of the most anticipated prediction market events of the year. Kalshi and Polymarket both have futures odds on the card already, headlined by Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje for the lightweight title and Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title. The White House setting and mainstream broadcast on Paramount+ will drive significant volume, making this one of the highest-liquidity UFC events prediction markets have seen.
Yes. Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predicts, and OG are all available in California, Florida, and Texas. Sports contracts are available on all five platforms in those states because none of them have legalized online sports betting, which is the condition that unlocks sports event contracts under federal rules.
