Contender Series Week 7: Picks, Odds & Predictions

Season 10 of Dana White’s Contender Series rolls on with a middleweight main event featuring one of the most efficient finishers on the roster in Norbert Novenyi Jr., while four undercard bouts pit unbeaten prospects against each other in what could be some of the tightest, most competitive matchups of the entire season.

Norbert Novenyi Jr. vs. Theo Haig

Norbert Novenyi Jr. enters this main event as a massive favorite for good reason. All three of his wins during his current streak have come in the opening round, including a triangle-choke submission and a first-round TKO, and that kind of finishing consistency at 10-1 makes him one of the most dangerous prospects on the entire card. Novenyi can win this fight anywhere it goes, his blend of crisp boxing and slick submission grappling gives him multiple avenues to end things quickly if he can find his rhythm early.

Theo Haig will need to survive the early storm and drag Novenyi into deeper water where his own durability and craft can take over. Haig’s best path is likely using length and movement to avoid getting caught in exchanges before Novenyi settles into range, then looking to counter as the Hungarian pushes forward. The problem is that Novenyi has shown no signs of needing more than five minutes to find a finish, and Haig hasn’t faced anyone with this level of two-way finishing ability.

Pick: Norbert Novenyi Jr. (-450)

Alvi Dasuyev vs. Jaden Ortega

Alvi Dasuyev brings serious power and finishing instincts into this welterweight clash, having racked up wins by both knockout and submission across his unbeaten run, including a first-round rear-naked choke in his most recent outing. His nickname “Spartan” fits his aggressive, forward-moving style, and he’ll look to close distance quickly, land heavy shots in combination, and force Jaden Ortega to make defensive mistakes he can capitalize on.

Ortega counters with an unbeaten record of his own and will need to rely on length, timing, and calculated counters to avoid getting drawn into a firefight where Dasuyev’s power becomes the deciding factor. If Ortega can control range with kicks and jabs while avoiding the clinch, he has a puncher’s chance late, but Dasuyev’s ability to finish fights in either phase makes him the much safer bet here.

Pick: Alvi Dasuyev (-255)

Marcos Degli vs. Paris Moran

Marcos Degli enters as the clear betting favorite in this flyweight matchup between two fighters carrying identical 14-3 records. Degli’s well-rounded skill set and recent form have made him the more trusted pick, and his ability to blend striking with grappling threats gives him multiple ways to control the pace against an opponent who will be fighting above his usual comfort zone in pressure and volume.

Paris Moran will need to lean on craft and experience to offset the size and power disadvantage most flyweights face against a bigger, more physical opponent. Moran’s best route to victory likely involves using distance management and counters to pick his spots rather than engaging in prolonged exchanges, since Degli’s improved finishing ability in recent fights suggests he’s more comfortable closing the show than he’s been given credit for in the past.

Pick: Marcos Degli (-355)

Piero Guaylupo vs. Callum Connor

This lightweight bout between Piero Guaylupo and Callum Connor is as close to a true pick’em as this card gets, with both undefeated fighters priced nearly identically on the moneyline. Guaylupo (11-0) has built his unbeaten record with a mix of aggression and finishing instinct, and his path to victory likely runs through imposing his pace early and testing Connor’s chin and composure under pressure before the Englishman can settle into his own rhythm.

Connor (8-0) brings his own perfect record and will look to use technical striking and measured pacing to frustrate Guaylupo’s forward pressure. Given how evenly matched these two look on paper, this fight likely comes down to whoever adapts faster in live combat, Connor’s discipline against Guaylupo’s aggression makes for a genuinely unpredictable stylistic clash, but the slight expectation is that Guaylupo’s finishing pressure eventually creates the opening he needs.

Pick: Piero Guaylupo (-110)

Damian Piwowarczyk vs. Emilio Quissua

Closing out the main card, Damian Piwowarczyk and Emilio Quissua meet in a light heavyweight fight that’s nearly a true coin flip on the moneyline. Piwowarczyk (11-4) carries more overall experience into the cage, and that veteran savvy could prove valuable if this fight extends into the second and third rounds, where his ability to adjust and find openings late has shown up throughout his career.

Quissua (8-0) remains unbeaten and brings younger legs and fresher power into the fight, giving him a real advantage if he can turn this into an early, high-output battle. His path to victory likely involves pressing the pace from the opening bell and testing Piwowarczyk’s durability before the veteran can settle into his usual rhythm. Given Piwowarczyk’s track record of finding a way to win in close fights, the slight lean here favors his experience carrying him through a tight, competitive three rounds.

Pick: Damian Piwowarczyk (-106)