UFC 331: Prediction Markets, Picks & Predictions
The UFC returns to Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles for a card built around unfinished business, headlined by a flyweight title rematch that never truly got started the first time around. Joshua Van’s original win over Alexandre Pantoja came in a shocking 26 seconds after the veteran suffered an elbow injury on an awkward landing, leaving the MMA world with more questions than answers about who the better fighter actually is.
Van now enters as a battle-tested champion following his first successful title defense, while Pantoja has spent months stewing on a fight he insists doesn’t reflect his true skill level, setting up a rematch with genuine championship stakes rather than a mere formality.
Surrounding that headliner is a stacked five-fight main card that doubles as a showcase for elite wrestling, heavy hands, and rising prospects. Arman Tsarukyan looks to continue his climb toward lightweight title contention against a knockout artist in Mauricio Ruffy who has already flattened names like Michael Chandler and Rafael Fiziev.
A 37-fight veteran, Patricio Pitbull, tries to prove he still belongs against the surging Doo Ho Choi. Add in Olympic gold medalist Gable Steveson‘s continued heavyweight development and a light-heavyweight slugfest to open the show, and UFC 331 offers plenty of angles for bettors across every level of the card.
Here’s every main card fight broken down, how each fighter could win, and a pick for every matchup.
Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja
| Fighter | Kalshi | Polymarket | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 57% | 57% | -136 |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 43% | 44% | +116 |
Van officially won the UFC flyweight championship by first-round TKO in the original matchup, but the unusual finish revealed almost nothing about how these fighters match up technically. Pantoja suffered a dislocated elbow when he landed awkwardly only 26 seconds into the contest, leaving Van with the belt but without the definitive victory normally associated with dethroning a long-reigning champion.
Van has since strengthened his claim to the throne by stopping Tatsuro Taira in his first title defense. At 24 years old, Van brings fast combinations, excellent body work and the confidence to maintain a punishing pace for as long as an opponent remains in front of him. His clearest path is keeping the fight in open space, forcing Pantoja to chase and punishing every entry with straight punches, hooks to the body and short uppercuts. Van does his best work when opponents agree to extended boxing exchanges, where his speed and combination depth allow him to build damage rather than hunt exclusively for one perfect shot.
Pantoja can win by disrupting that rhythm before Van gets comfortable. The former champion is an aggressive grappler who excels at turning messy clinch exchanges into back takes, submission attempts and prolonged periods of control. He cannot afford to repeatedly shoot from too far away, however, because Van is quick enough to intercept predictable entries and athletic enough to separate before Pantoja establishes his grips.
The challenger must also be selective with his pressure. Pantoja historically thrives when fights become chaotic, but Van’s composure makes reckless exchanges especially dangerous. Pantoja’s best sequence would involve backing Van toward the fence, connecting his hands around the waist and forcing the champion to spend energy defending mat returns rather than throwing combinations.
Over five rounds, Van’s cleaner boxing and superior speed should gradually become more influential. Pantoja may secure takedowns and threaten submissions early, but maintaining that grappling intensity against a younger champion with excellent scrambling ability will become increasingly difficult. Van should survive some dangerous positions before taking over the striking exchanges during the championship rounds.
Prediction: Joshua Van defeats Alexandre Pantoja by fourth-round TKO.
Pick: Joshua Van (-134)
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy
| Fighter | Kalshi | Polymarket | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 72% | 73% | -310 |
| Mauricio Ruffy | 28% | 28% | +250 |
This five-round lightweight co-main event matches Tsarukyan’s layered wrestling against one of the division’s most dangerous pure strikers. Tsarukyan enters with a 23-3 record and five consecutive wins, while Ruffy has registered 13 knockouts across his 14 professional victories.
Tsarukyan can win by making Ruffy defend multiple phases during every exchange. He averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, owns 75% takedown defense and absorbs only 1.80 significant strikes per minute, giving him the statistical profile of a fighter who controls where bouts take place. His takedowns are most effective when chained together: a single-leg becomes a body lock, the body lock becomes an outside trip and the resulting scramble creates opportunities to take the back.
Ruffy’s path is built around maintaining distance and forcing Tsarukyan to pay for every entry. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy and carries fight-ending power in his straight right, left hook and intercepting knee. Ruffy cannot become overly concerned with defending takedowns and stop throwing, though. Passive striking would allow Tsarukyan to dictate the pace without facing meaningful consequences.
The Brazilian needs to establish the jab, circle away from the fence and attack when Tsarukyan changes levels. A clean knee or uppercut could alter the fight immediately, especially during the first two rounds while Ruffy’s reactions remain sharp. His recent knockouts of Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler demonstrated that his power translates against accomplished UFC opposition.
Tsarukyan’s advantage should grow as the fight progresses. Ruffy can defend the first shot, but repeatedly stopping chained attempts while carrying Tsarukyan’s weight will drain his explosiveness. Once Ruffy begins standing more upright, Tsarukyan can blend overhand rights with deeper entries and establish sustained top control.
Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan defeats Mauricio Ruffy by third-round submission.
Pick: Arman Tsarukyan (-310)
Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi
| Fighter | Kalshi | Polymarket | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patricio Pitbull | 29% | 29% | +230 |
| Doo Ho Choi | 71% | 72% | -280 |
Patricio Pitbull brings one of the most accomplished résumés outside the UFC into a matchup against a rejuvenated Doo Ho Choi. Pitbull owns a 37-9 record with 12 knockout victories and 12 submissions, but he has gone 1-2 through his first three UFC appearances. Choi enters at 17-4-1 and has produced three consecutive knockout victories.
Pitbull’s best path involves preventing this from becoming a high-volume kickboxing match at long range. At 5-foot-6 with a 67-inch reach, he gives up four inches in height and three inches in reach to Choi. Pitbull must close that gap behind feints, counter Choi’s combinations with compact hooks and threaten takedowns whenever the Korean striker plants his feet.
The Brazilian remains extremely dangerous on the ground. His submission record includes guillotines, rear-naked chokes, heel hooks, a kimura and an armbar, demonstrating an ability to finish from several positions. A reactive takedown beneath one of Choi’s combinations could allow Pitbull to bypass the reach disadvantage and attack the neck during a scramble.
Choi wins by maintaining space and forcing Pitbull to cross the danger zone repeatedly. He lands approximately five significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, while Pitbull lands 2.77 and absorbs 4.61 per minute during his UFC run. Choi’s straight punches should arrive before Pitbull’s wider counters, particularly if he uses front kicks and body attacks to keep the veteran from exploding forward.
Pitbull’s experience makes him dangerous throughout the contest, but Choi’s current form, size and volume create a difficult assignment. Choi should patiently break down the body before increasing his combinations once Pitbull’s movement slows.
Prediction: Doo Ho Choi defeats Patricio Pitbull by second-round TKO.
Pick: Doo Ho Choi (-290)
Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf
| Fighter | Kalshi | Polymarket | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson | 92% | 93% | -2200 |
| Sean Sharaf | 8% | 8% | +1100 |
Gable Steveson’s rapid heavyweight development continues against Sean Sharaf in the most physically intriguing fight on the main card. Steveson enters with four professional victories and four knockouts after building his athletic foundation as an Olympic gold-medal wrestler, while both heavyweights officially weighed around 240 pounds for UFC 331.
Steveson’s path is straightforward but difficult to stop. He can change levels beneath Sharaf’s punches, drive through the hips and establish top position without expending the energy normally required by heavyweight wrestlers. His explosiveness makes the initial takedown dangerous, but his ability to control transitions is the more important weapon. Once Sharaf turns toward the fence to stand, Steveson can mat-return him and begin landing short punches.
Sharaf must force Steveson to operate in unfamiliar striking exchanges. The underdog cannot allow himself to be backed against the cage because that eliminates the space required to defend the shot. His best opportunity will come during the opening exchanges, when both fighters are dry and Steveson has not yet settled into his timing.
A well-timed uppercut, knee or short hook could punish an overeager entry. Sharaf should also attack the body whenever Steveson closes distance without immediately securing the takedown. Making the Olympic champion work in the clinch could test the cardio of a fighter who has not faced prolonged adversity in professional MMA.
The problem is that Sharaf must remain nearly perfect while Steveson can create offense through several varieties of takedown. Expect Steveson to secure an early finish after establishing top position and forcing Sharaf to expose himself while trying to stand.
Prediction: Gable Steveson defeats Sean Sharaf by first-round TKO.
Pick: Gable Steveson (-2500)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski
| Fighter | Kalshi | Polymarket | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alonzo Menifield | 32% | 31% | +184 |
| Iwo Baraniewski | 68% | 70% | -220 |
The UFC 331 opener should immediately establish a violent tone, with Alonzo Menifield and Iwo Baraniewski bringing legitimate knockout power into their light-heavyweight matchup. Menifield is the experienced 38-year-old veteran, while Baraniewski enters undefeated and looking to prove he can reproduce his explosive regional success against a ranked UFC opponent.
Menifield can win by slowing the fight down and making Baraniewski operate beyond the opening burst. He remains a dangerous counterpuncher with the strength to punish opponents who rush forward without setting up their attacks. Menifield’s right hand is particularly effective when an opponent overextends, and his physical strength could help him reverse clinch positions against the fence.
The veteran should invest in calf kicks and body attacks instead of immediately accepting a pocket brawl. Baraniewski is most threatening when he can build momentum, so interrupting his stance and forcing him to reset would make his attacks easier to read. If Menifield reaches the second half of the fight without absorbing major damage, his experience becomes much more meaningful.
Baraniewski wins by pressuring behind controlled combinations rather than recklessly charging. His power is obvious, but his ability to disguise the finishing blow will determine whether he can crack Menifield’s defense. Feinting the level change before throwing over the top could create the opening for his right hand, while body combinations would discourage Menifield from sitting down on counters.
This matchup could end from the first clean exchange. Menifield is dangerous enough to punish one mistake, but Baraniewski appears faster and more capable of assembling combinations rather than relying on isolated power punches. The younger fighter should force Menifield backward, draw out the counter and finish with the second or third shot.
Prediction: Iwo Baraniewski defeats Alonzo Menifield by first-round knockout.
Pick: Iwo Baraniewski (-220)