UFC Paris: Hooker vs. Parnasse Prediction Markets, Picks & Predictions

Accor Arena hosts a fifth straight year of UFC Paris action, headlined by a veteran lightweight trying to spoil the octagon debut of France’s biggest homegrown star, with a card featuring plenty of French fighters looking to feed off the partisan crowd.

Here’s every main card fight broken down with FanDuel moneylines against Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market pricing.

Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse — Main Event

Salahdine Parnasse (23-2)enters his UFC debut as one of the biggest favorites ever installed for a promotional newcomer, with the line stretching as far as -620 at FanDuel and prediction markets showing near-total alignment at roughly 81-82% implied probability across both Kalshi and Polymarket.

The surging Frenchman fights in front of his home crowd for the first time under the UFC banner, and years of hype built through other promotions have carried over directly into how heavily the books and exchanges are backing him against a veteran name.

Dan Hooker (24-14) brings 14 years of high-level UFC experience into this fight, and while he’s a significant live underdog at +430, his durability and championship-level opposition throughout his career give him a puncher’s chance that shouldn’t be completely dismissed.

While Hooker is the grizzled veteran in this matchup, the debuting Parnasse has the speed and technical advantages to make the experience inside the Octagon non-existent. Parnasse should come out there, mix it up on the feet and take Hooker down eventually finishing him and making a statement in his UFC debut.

Pick: Salahdine Parnasse (-620)

Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola — Co-Main Event

Fares Ziam (18-5) enters this lightweight co-main event fighting on home soil in France, and the market has him as a moderate favorite around -158, with Kalshi and Polymarket both landing on nearly identical implied probabilities at 58%. The Algerian-French lightweight brings well-rounded skills and home-crowd energy into this matchup, and the tight alignment across every platform suggests this line is efficiently priced rather than skewed by public sentiment.

Axel Sola (12-1-1) enters as the live underdog at +128, and his own strong professional record gives him legitimate credentials heading into this step up in competition. The method-of-victory breakdown shows Ziam with a real submission threat, priced at 13% to end the fight via that method specifically, while decision outcomes for both fighters combine for roughly 68% of the total probability, suggesting this projects as a competitive, grinding affair rather than an explosive finish.

Giving the experience against higher level of competition to go along with the tools and size advantages he has over Sola, Ziam should get himself back into the win column in front of his home crowd this weekend.

Pick: Fares Ziam (-158)

Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Michael “Venom” Page closes out his current UFC contract in this middleweight matchup as a moderate favorite at -176, with Polymarket’s active market pricing him at 61%. Page’s unique striking style, built around unpredictable angles and elite counter-striking, has made him must-watch television throughout his UFC tenure, and the betting markets continue to respect that skill set even against a durable opponent.

Nursulton Ruziboev (37-9-2) brings a significantly deeper professional résumé into this fight, and his experience against a wide range of styles gives him real tools to potentially frustrate Page’s rhythm if he can close distance effectively.

The “fight goes the distance” prop is priced at 67.5% on Polymarket, suggesting the market expects this to be a measured, tactical fight rather than an explosive finish, which favors Page’s typically calculated approach over the type of chaotic firefight that sometimes creates upsets against him.

Given his awkward style of fighting and how hard it is to get a read and close distance, expect MVP to keep this fight on the feet and at his preferred range picking Ruziboev apart to a unanimous decision victory.

Pick: Michael Page (-176)

Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano

Daniil Donchenko (14-2) enters this welterweight bout as a clear favorite around -240, and the prediction markets show even stronger consensus behind him, with Kalshi and Polymarket both landing between 68 and 69% implied probability. The surging welterweight brings well-rounded output and finishing ability that has made him one of the steadier favorites on this entire card, and the consistency of pricing across every tracked platform reinforces how confident the betting community is in this outcome.

Punahele Soriano (13-4) enters as the live underdog at +190, and while the gap is significant, his own finishing ability keeps him dangerous in any single exchange. The prop markets reveal real finishing expectations for this fight regardless of who wins, a KO/TKO outcome is priced at 56% on Polymarket, while the fight going the distance sits at just 33%, suggesting both men are expected to let their hands go rather than play it safe.

Given Donchenko’s firepower and more tools in his arsenal, he should be the one to land the bigger shots on Soriano until he eventually puts him away inside two rounds.

Pick: Daniil Donchenko (-240)

Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek

Kurtis Campbell enters as a significant favorite in this featherweight bout, with his pricing at -420 and prediction markets showing similarly strong confidence at 77% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket. The Englishman (8-1) has built his reputation on well-rounded output, and while he is coming off his first professional loss against Danny Silva, this could be the right matchup to get back on track.

Trevor Peek (9-3) enters as the live underdog, and his power represents the single biggest swing factor in this fight, with Kalshi’s method-of-victory market showing genuine respect for that threat even within an overall lopsided line. The round total split is worth noting, the over 1.5 rounds sits at -180 while the under sits at +140, suggesting the market expects Campbell to need some time working through Peek’s power before finding a comfortable path to victory.

Given the fact that Peek is coming off a long layoff due to injuries, now fighting at 145 pounds and his takedown defense still being a big drawback, Campbell should be able mix his strikes on the feet and hit a well-timed takedown to eventually get the back of Peek and sink in the choke to finish the job.

Pick: Kurtis Campbell (-420)

Losene Keita vs. Muhammadjon Naimov

Losene Keita (16-2) enters this featherweight bout as a decisive favorite, with Kalshi and Polymarket both showing strong consensus around 76 to 77% implied probability heading into fight night.

The French fighter benefits from home-crowd support in Paris, and his method-of-victory pricing shows real confidence in his finishing ability, with Kalshi listing a KO/TKO/DQ win for Keita at 51%, well above any single outcome tied to Naimov.

Muhammad Naimov (13-4) enters as the live underdog, and while the gap is significant, his own experience keeps him competitive on paper heading into this step up against a hometown favorite.

Polymarket’s props reveal an interesting split in expectations, the fight going the distance sits at just 40%, while a KO/TKO finish for either man is priced at 54%, suggesting the market anticipates fireworks early rather than a cagey, tactical decision.

Given Keita’s speed and power advantages in this matchup he should have his way with Naimov on the feet and as long as he can keep the fight standing he should get the emphatic knockout to kickstart this stacked UFC Paris main card.

Pick: Losene Keita (-410)