UFC Belgrade: Medic vs. Rodriguez Prediction Markets, Picks & Odds

Serbian fans finally get their homegrown headliner as Uros Medic tries to continue his knockout streak in front of a partisan crowd against Daniel Rodriguez, while a stacked main card features a former champion’s comeback bid and two heavyweight veterans clashing on short rest.

Here’s every UFC Belgrade main card fight broken down with FanDuel moneylines against Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market pricing.

Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez — Main Event

Uros Medic gets his first UFC main event in front of his home fans in Serbia, and the market has rewarded him with heavy favorite status. “The Doctor” comes in on a three-fight winning streak, with all three victories arriving in under 80 seconds via his blistering left hand against Geoff Neal, Muslim Salikhov, and Gilbert Urbina. He owns the highest knockdown rate in a stacked welterweight division, pairs that power with 60% striking accuracy, and backs it up with above-average 56% defense, making him a legitimately complete finisher rather than just a wild swinger.

Daniel Rodriguez (20-5) enters after a full year on the sidelines but arrives with real durability and craft, having only been finished once in his career, a head kick from Ian Machado Garry. His resume includes wins over Kevin Holland, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Alex Morono, showing he can compete with legitimate UFC-level competition when healthy. The concern for Rodriguez is that Medic’s counter-punching precision and power are specifically the tools that neutralize a forward-moving boxer.

This fight should be fun for however long it lasts. If Medic comes out guns blazing from the get-go, there is a real chance he lands one big shot on Rodriguez, putting him away early in front of his home crowd.

Pick: Uros Medic (-400)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling — Co-Main Event

Navajo Stirling is stepping in on short notice for this co-main event spot, yet the betting market has moved further in his favor rather than toward his veteran opponent. Stirling opened around -200 and has since widened out to -350. The unbeaten New Zealander (10-0) is fresh off finishing Ion Cutelaba without taking meaningful damage, and his camp’s familiarity with Jan Blachowicz’s style, having helped prepare Carlos Ulberg for a win over Blachowicz last year, gives him a real tactical edge entering fight week.

Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2) is a former UFC light heavyweight champion looking for his first win in over four years, having gone through two losses and two draws since his last victory. His path to an upset lives entirely in his left hand, “Polish Power” has ended fights against elite competition throughout his career, but Stirling’s excellent ability to avoid getting hit clean is specifically the trait that neutralizes aging punchers in a division full of one-shot knockout artists.

Blachowicz is 42 years old with a ton of wear and tear on his body. While he still has the punching power to put anyone out, it’s more likely that Stirling’s speed, youth, and athleticism let him skirt on the outside, picking Blachowicz apart over the course of the fight to remain unbeaten at 11-0.

Pick: Navajo Stirling (-350)

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura

Aleksandar Rakic makes his heavyweight debut against Marcin Tybura in a fight where both men enter on rough form, Rakic on a four-fight losing streak and Tybura on a two-fight skid, yet the market still installs the Serbian-Austrian as a heavy favorite. The jump from 205 pounds to 237.5 pounds creates genuine uncertainty while giving almost 18 pounds in size to Tybura (254 pounds).

Marcin Tybura (24-9) is a durable veteran heavyweight with legitimate grappling credentials and enough experience to make anyone who moves up a weight class pay for early mistakes. Tybura comes in as a live underdog given the questions around Rakic’s frame and durability carrying up in weight, and the price movement, from Tybura opening around +210-222 to now sitting as high as +270 at some books, suggests public money is flowing hard toward Rakic without necessarily reflecting sharp confidence.

While Rakic will give up size by moving up a weight class, he will still be exponentially faster than Tybura. As long as he can keep off the mat, he should stick and move to a wide decision in this matchup and finally get back into the win column.

Pick: Aleksandar Rakic (-330)

Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin

Nicknamed “Thunder” versus “Robzilla,” this middleweight scrap pits two fighters clawing back from rough stretches against each other in a fight where finishing ability defines both records. Robert Valentin sits as the favorite around at -170, coming off a bounce-back submission win over Julien Leblanc in April after eating three straight losses, including a brutal 70-second knockout loss to Ateba Gautier.

Dusko Todorovic (13-6) just snapped his own three-fight skid with a slick rear-naked choke finish over Jose Medina, showing he still has the killer instinct even after being stopped in the first round twice previously.

The finishing profile of both fighters makes this one of the more volatile bouts on the card, Todorovic’s UFC record breaks down to 47% by KO/TKO and 16% by submission, while Valentin’s wins are 57% by submission, meaning almost every fight either man has been in ends before the scorecards matter.

This is going to come down to the grappling exchanges. If Todorovic can keep this fight on the feet, he should be able to pick Valentin apart, but if Valentin gets the fight to the mat, he should finish it there. Ultimately, with Todorovic’s porous 42% takedown defense, Valentin should get this fight into his wheelhouse by taking Todorovic down and eventually submitting shortly thereafter.

Pick: Robert Valentin (-170)

Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina

Vlasto Cepo makes his UFC debut on home soil in Belgrade, and the local-fighter energy combined with a legitimately dangerous skill set has made him one of the bigger favorites on the entire card at -375. The Serbian middleweight (14-3) brings 10 knockouts on his record and significant recent finishing momentum from Oktagon.

Gilbert Urbina (7-5) is a UFC veteran with welterweight experience now stepping up to 185 pounds against a hometown favorite, and he’s absorbed multiple stoppage losses in recent outings, a concerning trend against a puncher like Cepo.

This is a tough draw for Urbina in his return to the middleweight division since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. Cepo has that fight-altering power that can shut the lights off with one punch, and that’s the most likely outcome in this fight this weekend.

Pick: Vlasto Cepo (-375)

Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon

Rounding out the main card is a lightweight clash between two surging prospects making their promotional debuts, with this fight basically being a pick ’em fight. Milos Janicic (19-3) built his “Cobra” reputation across European promotions like KSW, and his most notable credential is finishing UFC veteran Alex Oliveira in under two minutes at FNC 26 this past December, the performance that put him on the promotion’s radar.

Noah Gugnon (9-2) is the French 24-year-old riding five straight wins coming into his promotional debut, four of which came in the first round, giving him a legitimate finishing profile despite the step up in competition.

This is by far the toughest fight to call on the main card because of how closely contested it is. However, the power of Janicic could be the deciding factor, and while Gugnon has the grappling chops to potentially steal this fight, Janicic should be able to scramble to his feet, eventually putting Gugnon away in front of his home crowd.

Pick: Milos Janicic (-105)