UFC Abu Dhabi: Ankalaev vs. Guskov Betting and Prediction Market Picks

A dethroned champion looking to reset his career headlines this loaded light heavyweight main event at UFC Fight Night: Abu Dhabi at Etihad Arena, backed by a card full of unbeaten prospects making their UFC debuts and heavy favorites across the board. Here’s the fight-by-fight breakdown, with prediction market pricing and FanDuel moneylines for every main card bout.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov — Main Event

Magomed Ankalaev returns to the octagon for the first time since losing his light heavyweight title to Alex Pereira at UFC 320 last fall, and the market has decided this is a get-well fight against a late replacement.

FanDuel has him as a massive -620 favorite, with Kalshi and Polymarket both trading Ankalaev in the 81-82¢ range, translating to roughly an 82% implied win probability. The Russian former champion (21-2-1) is a disciplined, technical kickboxer who lands 52% of his significant strikes and rarely takes unnecessary risks, preferring to pick opponents apart methodically over 15 or 25 minutes.

Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1) stepped in on short notice for the injured Khalil Rountree Jr., and while he’s a legitimate knockout artist with 15 of 18 wins by finish, the step up in competition and preparation time works heavily against him. He lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, dangerous volume for the division, but Ankalaev’s own striking numbers are nearly identical, and he’s been doing it against a much higher level of competition for years. The threads analysis on this matchup correctly notes that Guskov’s power “sounds dangerous” on paper, but Ankalaev’s championship-tested chin and superior technical precision make this a significant gap in real-world danger.

Prediction markets and books alike see this as close to a formality. Ankalaev fights with excellent footwork, keeps range beautifully with kicks, and closes distance only when he sees clean openings, exactly the recipe to frustrate and eventually finish a short-notice replacement fighter.

Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov — Co-Main Event

This is the tightest fight on the entire main card, and the numbers back it up, Polymarket has Ramazan Temirov at 52¢ and Steve Erceg at 49¢, essentially a coin flip with a razor-thin lean toward the flyweight prospect.

Erceg, an established name in the division, has been in the deep end before, including a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja, giving him experience that Temirov simply hasn’t accumulated yet. His durability and championship-level composure are real weapons in a pick’em fight like this.

Temirov is the up-and-coming Uzbek prospect with legitimately heavy hands for a flyweight, and the props market reflects real respect for his finishing speed, FanDuel lists Temirov to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 at +280, while Erceg’s equivalent finish prop sits all the way out at +700. That gap tells the real story: bettors and books both see Temirov as the significantly more dangerous finisher if this fight ends early, even though the overall moneyline is nearly even.

The stylistic matchup favors whoever can dictate range first. Erceg wants to use experience and craft to survive Temirov’s power and grind out rounds, while Temirov wants to load up and find the finish before Erceg’s IQ takes over in the later rounds. Given the significant gap in finishing props relative to a near-even moneyline, this looks like a spot where the smart money leans live with Temirov’s finishing upside rather than the safer play on Erceg.

Pick: Ramazan Temirov

Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman

Islam Dulatov is the single biggest favorite on this entire main card, and for good reason, the German-based welterweight known as “The Ripper” brings elite length, one-punch power, and a nearly spotless 12-1 record into this bout against an opponent who hasn’t fought since 2023.

Wellington Turman (18-8) enters as one of the more concerning betting propositions on the card. Beyond the layoff, his skill set skews toward grappling exchanges, and Dulatov’s reach and volume striking are specifically the tools that neutralize a fighter who needs to close distance to be effective.

The betting value here, if there is any, lives in the round total rather than the moneyline, laying -950 for a nearly guaranteed win offers minimal return, but the under 1.5 rounds at -280 captures Dulatov’s most likely path to victory without requiring an enormous risk-to-reward ratio. Given the rust factor for Turman and the sheer physical mismatch in length and power, this profiles as a first-round finish more often than not.

Pick: Islam Dulatov

Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki

Two unbeaten prospects clash in this lightweight bout, and the market has a clear favorite despite both men making their promotional debuts on the same night. Magomed Zaynukov (8-0) enters as the -295 favorite off the back of a Dana White’s Contender Series win, and the sportsbooks are leaning heavily on his superior experience level relative to Rzepecki’s competition to date.

Damian Rzepecki (10-0) is the intriguing X-factor here, with a perfect record and a 90% finish rate(4 KO/TKO and 5 submissions) across his 10 professional victories. That kind of finishing versatility across both phases of the fight makes him live in almost any scenario, even against someone with as much hype as “Chanco”. The over 2.5 rounds prop sitting at -132 while the under sits at +104 suggests the market expects this to extend past the opening exchanges, giving Rzepecki’s underrated finishing instincts time to manifest.

This profiles as one of the sneakier live-dog spots on the card. Zaynukov’s Contender Series pedigree and heavier betting backing make him the safer play, but Rzepecki’s combination of KO and submission threats at +240 offers real value in a fight between two largely unknown UFC newcomers where neither man has faced this level of competition before.

Pick: Damian Rzepecki

Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune

Rizvan Kuniev (13-3-1) enters as a significant favorite off a statement win over Jailton Almeida by unanimous decision in his most recent outing, and the market has rewarded him with pricing at -330 on FanDuel. He averages 3.9 significant strikes per minute compared to Fortune’s 2.0, nearly double the output, and his finishing resume includes six KO/TKO wins against three submissions across a durable 13-3-1 career.

Tyrell Fortune (18-3) is the American wrestler-striker looking to make a real statement at UFC Abu Dhabi, and his profile suggests genuine live-dog upside at nearly 3-to-1 odds. Fortune’s wrestling background gives him a path to control Kuniev on the mat and neutralize the volume-striking disadvantage that shows up in the raw output numbers.

The round total market backs the underdog thesis here, the under 2.5 rounds is priced at +118, suggesting real recognition that this could end early if Fortune’s power or Kuniev’s volume finds the finish before the judges get involved. While the line may be wide, it is for good reason. Fortune is known to have cardio issues later in his fights and if he’s not able to get things going early and impose his will Kuniev will start to wear on him and take over down the stretch.

Pick: Rizvan Kuniev

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev

Opening the main card is a welterweight clash between two Russian stand-out prospects with sharply divergent momentum entering fight night. Abubakar Vagaev (24-4) makes his UFC debut riding a three-fight winning streak in Absolute Championship Akhmat, including capturing the welterweight title over Albert Tumenov, and stands at a legitimate six feet with real physical tools for the division. The market has installed him as a clear favorite at -255, and the over 2.5 rounds prop at -225 suggests books expect him to control the pace and grind toward a decision rather than needing an early finish.

Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-3) enters this bout looking to bounce back from an underwhelming UFC debut, a split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby in November 2025 that snapped what had been a five-fight winning streak. Despite the setback, he matches Vagaev in height at six feet and actually holds a reach advantage at 74 inches, giving him tools to keep the fight at range if his gameplan executes cleanly.

The over 2.5 rounds prop at -225 is the more defensible lean regardless of who wins the fight. Both men carry finishing question marks and a debut-fight jitters factor for Vagaev, combined with Izagakhmaev’s clear incentive to avoid another loss; both point toward a grinding, cagey affair that goes the distance more often than not.

Pick: Saygid Izagakhmaev