UFC 331: Taking a Look at This Weekend’s Shocking Numbers
Saturday’s flyweight title rematch is not just a battle for 125-pound supremacy, it’s a statistical anomaly wrapped in a revenge narrative. This is the biggest test of Joshua Van’s championship reign so far, and the final hurdle for former king Alexandre Pantoja to cement his legacy as one of the greatest flyweights in MMA history.
Van enters UFC 331 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles as a slight betting favorite, but is that justified given the bizarre nature of their first encounter?
The 24-year-old Burmese-American champion holds three clear advantages: youth (24 vs. 36), sheer striking volume, and the psychological edge of wearing the belt. At boxing range, Van is arguably the crisper, more technical fighter. But mid-range and in the clinch, it’s a whole different ball game. Pantoja thrives in chaos, leveraging his legendary submission threat to force scrambles, set the pace and pull his opponents into deep water.
Pantoja’s 30-6 record and historical dominance before losing the belt are impossible to ignore. Known as “The Cannibal,” he doesn’t just want to outpoint you; he wants to break you. But against Van, he’s facing a massive generational shift.
The 26-Second Anomaly
Let’s address the elephant in the room. They first fought at UFC 323 in December 2025 and it lasted all of 26 seconds. A head-kick exchange led to an awkward fall, snapping Pantoja’s arm and instantly crowning Van the new champion via TKO. While Van confidently predicted a finish and walked away with the belt, the statistical sample size from that fight is effectively zero. We didn’t see how Van’s footwork held up to Pantoja’s relentless pressure, and we didn’t see if Pantoja could successfully ground the dynamic striker.
Since then, Van has proved his championship mettle by going deep into the trenches. His fifth-round TKO defense against the previously undefeated Tatsuro Taira in May 2026 showed that his cardio, output, and finishing instincts hold up beautifully in championship rounds.
The Striking Differential and Cage Control
Van doesn’t necessarily rely on one-shot knockout power; he is a high-paced volume machine. He strings together combinations, targets the body to drain his opponent’s gas tank, and uses exceptional head movement to stay off the center line. He’s most comfortable against opponents who are willing to trade in the pocket, using his speed to land counters and exit on an angle.
Against Pantoja, though, striking in the pocket is an incredibly dangerous game. Pantoja isn’t known for flawless defensive metrics; he absorbs damage willingly to land his own bombs and close the distance. Pantoja holds a two-inch reach advantage (67″ to Van’s 65″), which he historically uses not to point-fight, but to snatch single collars and transition to body locks.
The biggest question on Saturday night is the wrestling, and the cardio.
We’ve seen Pantoja push a relentless pace in five-round wars against guys like Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. Even when tired, Pantoja’s grappling is so advanced that he can use it to rest while simultaneously threatening submissions. That won’t be easy against Van, who has shown remarkably improved takedown defense and a knack for scrambling back to his feet quickly before damage can be done.
The Ground Equation and Scramble Dynamics
Pantoja defends well along the fence, but his true magic happens in open-space scrambles. He has phenomenal back-takes, often leaping onto his opponent’s back from standing positions or transitional scrambles. If Van leaves his posture broken or throws naked low kicks, he plays right into Pantoja’s submission traps. The Brazilian has finished elite grapplers like Kai Asakura and Kai Kara-France with his suffocating rear-naked chokes.
The key for Van isn’t just defending takedowns, it’s making Pantoja work for every inch of the Octagon. If Van spends the fight only reacting and defending without getting his own offense going, the judges will inevitably favor Pantoja’s forward pressure and control time. Pantoja wants to turn this into a gritty, ugly dogfight. Van needs to keep it a clean, technical kickboxing match where his youth and speed can shine.
Off his back, Van has shown active hips and good get-ups, but against Pantoja, exposing your back during a scramble is practically a death sentence. Pantoja’s ability to chain his takedowns into immediate submission threats is unparalleled in the division’s history.
Beyond the Main Event: A Lightweight Banger
While the flyweights rightfully headline the card, the co-main event offers its own statistical fireworks. We have a massive five-round lightweight clash between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy. Tsarukyan, stepping back into the cage after a long layoff and a previously canceled title eliminator against Charles Oliveira, brings some of the most oppressive top-control metrics in the 155-pound division. However, Ruffy’s unpredictable striking and terrifying finish rate make him a wildly dangerous opponent for anyone willing to trade on the feet.
The rest of the main card is equally stacked, featuring legends and rising knockout artists. We’ll see Patricio Pitbull taking on Doo Ho Choi in a featherweight bout guaranteed to produce a striking masterclass, and heavy-hitters Alonzo Menifield colliding with Iwo Baraniewski at light-heavyweight. Every one of these matchups features significant stylistic clashes, but the shadow of the main event looms largest over Los Angeles.
Final Verdict
I still see a very tight path to victory for both men. Pantoja is one of the absolute toughest stylistic matchups in the division for a pure striker, and Van is only clearly better at long range, a range Pantoja has multiple ways to eliminate with his iron chin and aggressive blitzes.
However, the 12-year age gap cannot be ignored. Historically in title fights, when the age gap exceeds 10 years, the younger fighter wins at an overwhelming clip. Unless Pantoja finds an early submission, he’ll likely need to show an unexpectedly elite level of cardio and durability to sustain his grappling pace for 25 minutes against a 24-year-old champion hitting his physical prime. That’s a tall order for anyone, even “The Cannibal.”
The prediction markets and sportsbooks have it tight, and so do I. But if Van can survive the initial two-round grappling storm, his body work and volume should take over down the stretch. Saturday night at UFC 331 will finally give us the definitive answer that the 26-second stoppage robbed us of last December.