UFC 331 Breakdown: Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja 2

UFC 331 lands at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on September 19, headlined by a flyweight title rematch that fans have been clamoring for since the first fight ended in bizarre, unsatisfying fashion. Joshua Van captured the belt from Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 323 in December 2025, but the finish came via TKO due to an arm injury just 26 seconds into the first round, leaving the entire division wondering what would have happened had the fight actually gotten underway.

Nearly ten months later, Van defends his title against the very man he dethroned in a fluke ending, and this time there’s no ambiguity about who deserves to be standing across the cage from the champion.

Van’s Rise to the Throne

At just 24 years old, Joshua Van represents the new breed of flyweight: a fast-twitch, high-volume striker who overwhelms opponents with pressure rather than simply out-boxing them from range. Since claiming the belt, Van made his first title defense in May 2026 against Japanese phenom Tatsuro Taira, and the fight showcased everything that makes Van dangerous. He dropped Taira twice before finishing him with a front kick to the body and follow-up punches at 1:32 of the fifth round, closing the show in what had been a competitive, high-level striking battle up to that point. Van’s numbers are eye-popping for the division: he lands a staggering 8.43 significant strikes per minute at 57 percent accuracy, nearly double the flyweight average, while his significant strike defense sits at 58%, a respectable number for a fighter who engages as frequently as he does.

Van’s resume now sits at 17-2, and nine of his 17 wins have come by knockout or TKO, with a finish rate north of 65%. He’s shown he can win a technical striking battle against elite opposition in Taira and still find the finish when the opportunity presents itself, a trait that separates him from flyweights who rely purely on volume without real fight-ending power.

Pantoja’s Case for Redemption

Alexandre Pantoja isn’t just a former champion looking for one last run; he’s a 30-6 veteran who many analysts still consider one of the most dangerous grapplers in UFC history at 125 pounds. Before the injury-marred finish against Van, Pantoja had been the undisputed king of the division, breaking opponents down with relentless forward pressure, brawling striking exchanges, and elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu that has produced 12 submission wins across his career. He’s a wrecking ball in exchanges, willing to eat a shot to land two of his own, and his ground game remains a real threat if this fight ever hits the mat.

The concern for Pantoja is age and recent history. At 36, he’s now on the wrong side of the physical curve in one of the sport’s most explosive divisions, and losing the title in such an anticlimactic fashion means he’s fighting with something to prove rather than simply defending established dominance. His only path to victory likely runs through closing distance quickly, turning this into an ugly brawl or a grappling affair, and avoiding the kind of extended kickboxing measuring contest that so clearly favors the younger, fresher champion.

The Current Betting Odds

The betting markets have gone back and forth on this fight throughout fight week, but the line has settled with Van as a moderate favorite heading into Saturday night.

The Stylistic Chess Match

This fight boils down to a clean stylistic question: can Pantoja close distance and turn this into the kind of ugly, grappling-infused brawl where his jiu-jitsu and veteran craftiness take over, or does Van’s superior volume and technical striking simply pick him apart from the outside before that ever happens?

Van’s striking defense of 58% isn’t elite, which means Pantoja’s aggressive forward pressure could land clean looks even if he’s ultimately losing the overall exchange rate. But Van’s takedown defense sits at 75%, a strong number that suggests Pantoja may struggle to consistently put him on the canvas even with his renowned wrestling and grappling instincts.

The blueprint for beating Van, as shown even in a losing effort by Taira, is competent, technical counter-striking mixed with occasional grappling entries to change rhythm. Pantoja has more raw grappling ability than Taira ever displayed, but he’s also less of a pure boxer, meaning he may need to force exchanges into the clinch and along the fence rather than trying to out-strike Van in open space.

Why the Public Has Shifted Toward Van

The line movement from Pantoja-favored to Van-favored over the past several weeks reflects a broader shift in how many view this specific rematch. Van’s performance against Taira wasn’t just a win, it was a statement that he can handle adversity, absorb clean strikes, and still find a finish against a live, technically sound opponent. Pantoja, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since the freak injury ending against Van, which means questions about ring rust, emotional state, and physical freshness are all legitimate unknowns heading into Saturday.

Age also becomes a bigger factor the longer this fight goes. If Pantoja can’t find success in the first two rounds, the third, fourth, and fifth rounds become increasingly dangerous territory against a 24-year-old champion who has shown no signs of slowing down over five-round affairs.

The Prediction

Joshua Van’s superior volume, well-rounded skill set, and demonstrated ability to close out a fight against elite competition make him the right side of this line, even accounting for Pantoja’s legitimate grappling threat and championship pedigree.

Expect Pantoja to come out aggressively, looking to establish the clinch and test Van’s takedown defense early, but Van’s superior output and technical boxing should allow him to control range and begin piling up damage by the midpoint of the fight.

As the rounds progress, Pantoja’s age and the rust from his long layoff should become increasingly apparent, opening the door for Van to find another finish late, much like he did against Taira in his last outing.

Final Call: Joshua Van by TKO, Round 4