UFC 331 Breakdown: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy

UFC 331’s co-main event might carry as much long-term weight on the lightweight division as the main card’s title fight itself. Arman Tsarukyan meets Mauricio Ruffy on September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles in a five-round showcase that has been discussed openly as a potential eliminator for a shot at Justin Gaethje‘s lightweight title.

Gaethje himself has publicly weighed in, predicting how this fight plays out and acknowledging that whoever emerges victorious could be next in line once he returns to action in 2027. That kind of endorsement from the reigning champion tells you everything about how seriously the promotion and its top contenders are treating this matchup.

Tsarukyan enters at 23-3 and ranked No. 2 in the division, a perennial title challenger who has spent years knocking on the door of a championship opportunity. Ruffy, at 14-2 and ranked No. 7, represents the most explosive rising threat in the weight class, a Brazilian finisher who has become the breakout star of the celebrated Fighting Nerds gym in São Paulo.

Elite Wrestling Meets Underrated Power

Arman Tsarukyan’s game is built on a foundation that few lightweights can match. His elite wrestling, world-class grappling, and outstanding cardio are his defining strengths, and the numbers fully back that reputation. He averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes against a divisional average of 1.69, more than double the typical lightweight’s output, while his takedown defense sits at a stout 75%, meaning he’s just as capable of stopping opponents’ wrestling as he is imposing his own.

What sometimes gets lost in the conversation about Tsarukyan is that he isn’t purely a grinder. He’s finished nine of his 23 career wins by knockout, and his significant strikes absorbed per minute sits at just 1.8 against a lightweight average of 3.91, meaning he gets hit roughly half as often as the typical fighter in his division. That defensive efficiency, paired with his wrestling pedigree, is precisely why he’s remained in or near the title picture for years, even through three losses to elite competition.

The Most Explosive Finisher in the Division

Mauricio Ruffy’s rise has been almost entirely defined by violence. Thirteen of his 14 career wins have come by knockout, and 93% of his victories have ended before the judges were needed to get involved, one of the most lopsided finishing rates anywhere in the UFC’s 155-pound division.

His path to this co-main event includes a statement knockout of Rafael Fiziev via TKO in the second round back in February, and most recently a spinning wheel kick and follow-up punches that finished former lightweight champion Michael Chandler in June. Beating a former champion in Chandler by that kind of highlight-reel finish is exactly the type of resume-building win that turns a rising prospect into a legitimate title threat.

Statistically, Ruffy actually out-lands Tsarukyan, generating 4.19 significant strikes per minute at a sharp 57% accuracy, both figures well above the lightweight average. His significant strike defense of 59 percent is also stronger than the divisional norm. Where his profile gets concerning is on the ground: Ruffy averages zero takedowns landed and zero submission attempts per 15 minutes across his tracked UFC data, a red flag against a wrestler of Tsarukyan’s caliber who will almost certainly look to test that exact weakness.

The Current Betting Odds

The betting markets have consistently treated this as a significant but not overwhelming mismatch, respecting Ruffy’s finishing power even while installing Tsarukyan as a clear favorite.

The Wrestling Question That Decides Everything

This fight comes down to one central, almost binary question: can Ruffy keep Tsarukyan off of him for 25 minutes? Given that Ruffy’s tracked UFC data shows literally zero submission attempts and zero takedowns landed, there’s no statistical evidence he can offensively match Tsarukyan on the mat. The entire fight likely hinges on his takedown defense holding up against a wrestler averaging over three takedowns per 15 minutes with elite finishing instincts once he gets on top.

If Tsarukyan can close the distance and put Ruffy on his back even once or twice per round, his wrestling volume and control time should be enough to steal rounds even if Ruffy is winning the striking exchanges. That’s precisely the blueprint that has carried Tsarukyan to the No. 2 ranking in the division, and it’s why the betting markets, despite respecting Ruffy’s power, have never seriously considered making him the favorite.

Why Ruffy Still Has a Puncher’s Chance

None of this means Ruffy is without hope. His 4.19 strikes landed per minute at 57% accuracy gives him a legitimate path to hurting Tsarukyan in exchanges before the Armenian wrestler can find his takedown entries, and his finish of Chandler proved he’s capable of ending a fight from unconventional angles that even experienced veterans don’t see coming. If Ruffy can land clean in the opening minute of round one, before Tsarukyan settles into his grappling rhythm, the finishing power he’s shown against Fiziev and Chandler makes him dangerous enough to end this fight in a hurry.

The challenge is sustaining that threat once Tsarukyan starts testing his takedown defense. Fiziev and Chandler are both strikers without significant wrestling pedigrees of their own, meaning Ruffy has never actually had to prove his takedown defense against a true offensive wrestler at the UFC level. That absence of data is either a red flag or simply an unknown, and how it resolves on fight night will likely determine the outcome.

The Prediction

Arman Tsarukyan’s wrestling volume, elite takedown defense, and championship-level composure should be enough to close the door on Ruffy’s explosive but statistically one-dimensional offensive profile. Expect Ruffy to have moments of success in the opening exchanges, potentially even landing something that gives Tsarukyan pause, but the fight should increasingly tilt in Tsarukyan’s favor once he begins mixing in takedown attempts and finds success working from top position. Ruffy’s total lack of tracked defensive grappling data against a true wrestler is the single biggest concern working against him here, and it’s difficult to bet against a fighter of Tsarukyan’s caliber closing that gap over 25 minutes.

Final Call: Arman Tsarukyan by unanimous decision