The Breakdown: Dricus Du Plessis Returns As A Huge Betting Favorite Against Kamaru Usman At UFC OKC

The Octagon is heading back to the Sooner State for the first time in nearly a decade, and the promotion is bringing a massive middleweight collision to the Paycom Center. On July 18, 2026, former middleweight kingpin Dricus “Stillknocks” du Plessis looks to begin his climb back to the mountaintop when he squares off against legendary former welterweight champion “The Nigerian Nightmare” Kamaru Usman in the main event of UFC Oklahoma City.

This is a quintessential crossroads fight. We have an aggressive, physical powerhouse trying to erase the memory of a dominant title loss, facing an aging, all-time great moving up in weight for one last run at championship glory. From a market perspective, oddsmakers have taken a firm stance on the younger, natural middleweight. Let’s dive into the fight news, break down the stylistic matchup, and analyze the board from a pure betting angle.

Build-up to UFC Oklahoma City main event

The road to this matchup has not been without its share of drama and delays. Du Plessis has been champing at the bit to return to action since August 2025. Originally slated to fight in April of this year, the South African was forced to withdraw due to an undisclosed injury.

However, getting Usman on the dotted line for July proved to be its own hurdle. Du Plessis, the former welterweight champion dragged his feet during negotiations. “Now I know you didn’t wanna sign the contract,” du Plessis stated publicly, claiming UFC brass explicitly told him they had to heavily persuade Usman to accept the bout.

For du Plessis, the motivation is strictly redemptive. At UFC 319, he suffered his first loss in over three years, losing his middleweight strap to Khamzat Chimaev in a lopsided, grueling unanimous decision (50-44 across the scorecards). Chimaev took him down in the opening seconds, established a mounted crucifix, and effectively blanketed him for 25 minutes.

Du Plessis has spent the last year promising that the fire is back and that his wrestling defense has evolved. Meanwhile, the 39-year-old Usman is returning to middleweight following a bounce-back win over Joaquin Buckley at 170 pounds last June, hoping to prove that his championship pedigree can translate against the heavy hitters of the 185-pound division.

The Breakdown: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman

Dricus du Plessis is a huge favorite in this fight, listed at -370 on BetRivers. To understand why the market is so heavily skewed in his favor, you have to look at his physical attributes and output. Du Plessis is a chaotic, switch-hitting tank who lives and dies by relentless forward pressure, awkward but highly effective striking mechanics and sheer brute strength.

Before the Chimaev loss, du Plessis was on a historic 11-fight winning streak, utilizing a high-volume offensive shell that drowned elite fighters like Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland. His primary weapon is his physicality.

He crashes the pocket with looping overhands, forces opponents against the fence, and looks to break their posture. Against a 39-year-old natural welterweight in Usman, du Plessis will carry a distinct strength and weight advantage into the cage. His primary concern will be answering the questions left behind by the Chimaev fight: can he stuff the takedowns of an elite, credentialed wrestler, and keep the fight in open space?

Kamaru Usman is facing steep odds of +275, casting him in a rare position as a heavy underdog. The questions surrounding Usman are entirely related to Father Time and moving up in weight. At 39 years old, the reflexes naturally slow, and fighting 15 pounds above the division where he built his Hall of Fame legacy is a daunting task.

Stylistically, however, Usman still possesses the tools to make this highly competitive. Usman’s foundation is his suffocating wrestling, but he matured into a polished striker. Usman possesses one of the best power jabs in the sport, a piston-like strike he uses to manage distance, halt forward pressure, and set up his right cross.

Against a fighter like du Plessis who blitzes in straight lines, Usman’s jab and lateral movement will be his most vital assets. If he can pump the jab to disrupt du Plessis’s rhythm and time his level changes underneath the looping hooks, Usman can turn this into a grueling, clinch-heavy affair.

Tale of the Tape

At -370, the BetRivers number implies a nearly 78.7% chance of a du Plessis victory. In the volatile combat sports, especially at middleweight, where one strike can drastically change the fight, laying nearly 4-to-1 juice on a straight moneyline is a proposition that requires strict bankroll management.

While du Plessis possesses the physical advantages, tying up significant capital on a fighter coming off a historically dominant grappling loss, who is now facing one of the greatest wrestlers in UFC history, carries inherent risk. For bettors looking to back the favorite, utilizing du Plessis as a parlay anchor rather than a straight bet is the more traditional approach to mitigate exposure.

Conversely, Usman at +275 carries an implied probability of just 26%. The market is essentially telling us that Usman’s age, combined with the size disparity, is too much to overcome. However, from a pure value perspective, getting nearly 3-to-1 odds on a former pound-for-pound king who possesses the exact grappling-heavy skill set that recently exposed the favorite is a compelling numerical argument.

UFC Oklahoma City presents an intriguing puzzle for the MMA betting world. It is a clash of physical titans, historical greatness and complex questions of style. The market has made it clear that Dricus du Plessis is the rightful favorite to get back in the win column. However, Kamaru Usman has made a career out of dismantling aggressive strikers. As lines mature and prop markets open, getting the right angle will involve dissecting exactly how these colliding forces will interact once the Octagon door locks.