Noche UFC: Prediction Markets, Picks & Predictions

Noche UFC returns to Glendale for Mexican Independence Day weekend with a short-notice main event shakeup, a former two-time flyweight champion looking to bounce back, and a stacked heavyweight clash between two ranked contenders.

Here’s every main card fight, prediction market and odds previewed, with our pick and prediction of how it all plays out.

Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado — Main Event

Jean Silva steps into this main event after Yair Rodriguez withdrew due to injury, and the Brazilian featherweight brings relentless pressure and violent forward movement that has made him must-watch television throughout his UFC run. Silva wins this fight by suffocating Jose Delgado with volume from the opening bell, chaining together leg kicks, body shots, and combinations until his opponent’s output starts to fade, then capitalizing with a finish once the Arizona native’s guard drops.

Jose Miguel Delgado enters as the Phoenix-based replacement fighter looking to make the most of his opportunity in front of a supportive local crowd. If Delgado is to win, he’s going to need to use his distance and timing to combat Silva’s aggression, picking his spots as Silva walks forward to land clean shots rather than trying to match him strike for strike in close quarters.

Given the gap in overall polish and Silva’s proven ability to finish fights against increasingly credentialed opponents, expect his pressure to be too much for Delgado to withstand over the full 25 minutes.

Prediction: Jean Silva by TKO, Round 2

Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales

Brandon Moreno enters this co-main event looking to snap a three-fight winless stretch, and the two-time former flyweight champion’s blend of elite scrambling ability, cardio, and championship experience makes him dangerous in any exchange regardless of recent results. Moreno wins by relying on his movement, superior boxing, and cardio to pull ahead in the later rounds as Morales’ inexperience at this level starts to show.

Joseph Morales brings real athleticism and finishing instincts into this matchup, having scored two consecutive stoppage wins heading into the biggest fight of his career. Morales’s route to the win involves using his submission grappling to not allow Moreno to get comfortable on the feet. This will make Moreno tentative in the striking which will allow Morales to land his strikes and mix in the takedowns to knock off the rhythm of the former champ.

This projects as an incredibly tight, competitive fight between two live threats, but Morales’ current form and ability to grind out close rounds should be enough to get his hand raised.

Prediction: Joseph Morales by decision

Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki

Tommy McMillen enters this featherweight bout still unbeaten, and his well-rounded pressure-based style built on volume striking and opportunistic takedowns has carried him through every test in his career so far. McMillen wins this fight by dictating pace early, forcing Marwan Rahiki to defend multiple phases of combat simultaneously and wearing him down with cumulative damage over the course of three rounds.

Marwan Rahiki brings his own unbeaten record into this matchup and carries genuine finishing power that makes him dangerous in single exchanges regardless of who’s controlling the pace. Rahiki’s route to the upset involves catching McMillen with a clean shot early or using length to keep the fight at a distance where his own power becomes the deciding factor.

Given McMillen’s superior volume and ability to grind out tough stretches against increasingly live competition, his pressure should be too much for Rahiki to overcome across the full three rounds.

Prediction: Tommy McMillen by decision

Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso

Manon Fiorot enters this pivotal flyweight clash as the top-ranked contender in the division, and her elite kickboxing background combined with excellent takedown defense have made her nearly impossible for opponents to solve stylistically. Fiorot wins this fight by controlling range with her jab and leg kicks, picking Alexa Grasso apart from the outside while denying any entries that would let the Mexican fighter close distance and work her own offense.

Alexa Grasso is looking to bounce back after back-to-back losses to the two best fighters in the division, and a win here puts her right back into title contention. Grasso’s best path to victory involves using her own crisp striking and movement to avoid Fiorot’s power while looking for opportunities to counter as Fiorot commits to combinations. The stylistic matchup favors Fiorot’s structured, technical approach over Grasso’s more improvisational style, and her superior physical tools at range should allow her to control the pace and win a clear decision.

Prediction: Manon Fiorot by decision

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes

Waldo Cortes-Acosta enters this heavyweight clash as the surging fifth-ranked contender, and “Salsa Boy’s” combination of underrated athleticism, volume striking, and durability have made him a genuine problem for the entire heavyweight division. Cortes-Acosta wins this fight by using his cardio and pace advantage to keep Curtis Blaydes moving and defending for the full three rounds, avoiding prolonged wrestling exchanges where the veteran’s grappling could take over.

Curtis Blaydes brings elite wrestling credentials and one of the best takedown games in heavyweight history into this matchup, and his ability to control fights on the mat has been the foundation of his entire UFC career. For Blaydes to win, he has to close the distance quickly, get takedowns and grind out top control time to neutralize Cortes-Acosta’s superior striking volume before it becomes a factor.

Given Cortes-Acosta’s continued susceptibility to takedowns and Blaydes’s ability to go toe-to-toe on the feet, Blaydes should begin to mix up his striking with takedowns to rack up control time, wearing out Cortes-Acosta en route to a decision victory.

Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision

David Martinez vs. Dan Ige

David Martinez enters this bantamweight bout fighting in front of his home-country crowd, and his well-rounded skill set combined with the emotional boost of a hometown atmosphere has made him a heavy favorite heading into fight night. Martinez wins this fight by using pressure and pace to close distance early, mixing in takedown attempts and heavy volume to overwhelm Ige before the veteran can settle into a rhythm.

Dan Ige brings championship-level experience and a granite chin into this matchup, having gone the distance with some of the toughest competition the featherweight and bantamweight divisions have to offer. Ige’s way to the upset is to play on his experience and durability to weather the early storm from Martinez, looking to land clean counters, and take the fight into deeper waters where his veteran composure could be the difference.

With the recent momentum disparity so vast and Martinez’s crowd-fueled intensity at home, expect the hometown favorite’s energy and physical tools to be too much for Ige to overcome.

Prediction: David Martinez by decision