Contender Series Week 5: Picks, Odds & Predictions

Season 10 of Dana White’s Contender Series returns for Week 5 with a light heavyweight main event pitting two unbeaten prospects against each other, plus four undercard fights loaded with size mismatches and grappling battles.

Here’s every main card fight broken down with betting odds, a look at how each fighter could win, and a pick for every matchup.

Quentin Pasley vs. Arlind Berisha — Light Heavyweight

Arlind Berisha headlines as the first Albanian fighter to ever compete on Dana White’s Contender Series, and his unbeaten 6-0 record built entirely on first-round finishes has made him the clear favorite at -200. Berisha’s path to victory is straightforward, his history of ending fights before the opening round even concludes suggests he plans to come out with immediate pressure and heavy volume, looking to overwhelm Pasley before he can settle into any kind of rhythm.

Quentin Pasley enters at +168 off the back of a highlight-reel flying knee finish of Reylan Gracie, giving him real flash and finishing upside despite his shorter 3-0 professional résumé. Pasley’s best route to the upset involves using his athleticism and creativity to find an unorthodox angle the way he did in his last outing, catching Berisha off guard before the Albanian’s typical fast start can take over.

Given Berisha’s proven ability to finish fights in the opening round and the step up in competition Pasley is facing, the favorite’s price looks justified heading into this crucial featured bout slot.

Pick: Arlind Berisha (-200)

Isaac Moreno vs. Reginaldo Junior — Welterweight

Isaac Moreno enters this welterweight bout as the favorite at -155, and his unbeaten 8-0 record suggests a fighter who has found consistent ways to win regardless of opponent or setting. Moreno’s path to victory likely involves imposing his physical tools early and using pressure to keep Junior on the back foot, preventing the Brazilian from ever finding a comfortable rhythm or distance to work from.

Reginaldo Junior enters at +120 with a deeper 11-1 record, and that extra experience against tougher competition gives him real tools, especially power, to potentially frustrate an unbeaten prospect who hasn’t faced this level of opposition yet. Junior’s route to the upset comes down to using his craft and poise in the deep water, if he can weather Moreno’s early pressure and drag this into the second and third rounds, his experience edge could become the deciding factor down the stretch.

Given his superior professional résumé and battle-tested composure against adversity, Junior’s underdog price at +120 offers real value in a fight that has volatility on both sides as Junior’s striking pedigree and power should overcome in a big way with a knockout on Tuesday night.

Pick: Reginaldo Junior (+120)

Martin Kozak vs. Christian Echols — Middleweight

Martin Kozak enters this middleweight matchup as one of the biggest favorites on the entire card at -480, and his unbeaten 6-0 record has been built through comprehensive performances that have left little doubt about his readiness for this stage. Kozak’s path to victory relies on his well-rounded skill set, mixing volume striking with grappling threats to give Echols multiple problems to solve simultaneously rather than one single dimension to defend against.

Christian Echols enters at +350 as the significant underdog, and while his 8-4 record shows some vulnerability against tougher competition, his experience in high-pressure moments gives him a chance that shouldn’t be entirely dismissed. Echols’s best route to the upset involves finding one clean opportunity early and capitalizing on it before Kozak’s superior overall craft takes over the pace of the fight.

Given the significant gap in recent form and unbeaten momentum working in Kozak’s favor, he is prime to put the pressure on Echols and look for his seventh finish in as many fights and look to be another name to watch out for in the UFC’s middleweight division.

Pick: Martin Kozak (-480)

Kwon Won-il vs. Apollo Gomes — Bantamweight

Kwon Won-il returns to the Contender Series stage after a previous loss, and this near pick’em line at -128 reflects genuine uncertainty about how well he’s adjusted since that setback. Kwon’s path to victory involves relying on his deeper 14-6 professional résumé and the lessons learned from his last appearance, using superior pace and volume to control the center of the cage against a less experienced opponent.

Apollo Gomes enters at +104, essentially even money, and his 12-2 record with one no-contest gives him a credible case as a live threat in this bantamweight matchup. Gomes’s route to the win comes down to his own aggression and willingness to engage, if he can match Kwon’s volume and find success in the exchanges, the razor-thin nature of this line suggests either man walking away with the win is entirely plausible.

Given his motivation to bounce back from his previous Contender Series loss and the extra experience he carries into the cage, Kwon’s slick striking and volume should overwhelm Gomes in this spot, eventually putting him away and staking his claim for a contract Tuesday night.

Pick: Kwon Won-il (-128)

Colton Loud vs. Christian Natividad — Flyweight

Christian Natividad opens the main card as the betting favorite at -290, and his unbeaten 9-0 record heading into this short-notice opportunity speaks to a fighter who has been consistently sharp across every level of competition he’s faced. Natividad’s best bet will likely be to use pace, volume and power to wear down Loud over the course of the fight. He’ll rely on his power to land heavy shots that could rock Loud and early.

Colton Loud enters at +225 with a 7-1 record, and while he’s stepping in as the underdog, his own credentials suggest he’s more than capable of testing an unbeaten prospect on short notice. Loud’s best route to the upset comes from mixing it up on the feet and utilizing his physicality early in the clinch and grappling to avoid the power that will be coming back his way.

Given Natividad’s flawless record against better competition in LFA and his insane power for 125 pounds, he should land something flush on Loud eventually putting him away and securing his UFC contract.

Pick: Christian Natividad (-290)