Contender Series Week 4: Picks, Odds & Predictions

Season 10 wraps up its DWCS Week 4 episode with an all-welterweight main event pitting American grit against Irish power, plus a card full of unbeaten prospects with only one loss each fighting for the same UFC contract dream.

Here’s every fight broken down with our picks and predictions for Week 4.

Patrick Rivera vs. Adam Darby — Welterweight

Adam Darby enters this main event as the clear betting favorite at -400, and the Irish welterweight’s combination of pace, volume, and finishing instincts have made him one of the more hyped prospects to headline a Contender Series card in recent weeks. Darby’s path to victory runs through pressure, if he can keep this fight standing and force exchanges early, his superior output should eventually create the separation needed to close the show before the judges get involved.

Patrick Rivera counters with a deeper 13-4 resume, and while he’s the significant live underdog at +300, his experience against tougher competition gives him multiple avenues most prospects his opponent’s age haven’t had to solve yet. Rivera’s path to the upset likely involves using his grappling background to change levels and take this fight into unfamiliar territory for Darby, wearing him down over the later stages rather than trying to win a pure standup battle. Given his composure under pressure and a deeper well of experience in close fights, Rivera’s underdog price at +316 offers real value in a featured bout spot that projects as closer than the moneyline suggests.

Pick: Patrick Rivera (+300)

Brandon Holmes vs. Modestino Rodrigues — Middleweight

Brandon Holmes enters as a moderate favorite at -150, and his willingness to accept short-notice bouts throughout his career speaks to a fighter who’s comfortable adapting on the fly. Holmes’s path to victory likely comes down to imposing his physicality early and using pressure to disrupt Rodrigues’s rhythm before the Brazilian can settle into his preferred pace and distance.

Modestino Rodrigues enters at +122 as the live underdog, but his Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and well-rounded skill set give him a legitimate route to victory if he can drag this fight into grappling exchanges. Rodrigues’s ability to threaten submissions from multiple positions makes him dangerous any time this fight hits the mat, and his composure in those situations has been a consistent theme throughout his career. Given the value on the underdog price and his clear path via the ground game, Rodrigues looks like the sharper play in a fight that should reward patience and craft over pure physicality.

Pick: Modestino Rodrigues (+120)

Liam McCracken vs. Silvestre Sanchez — Lightweight

Liam McCracken enters as the significant favorite at -265, and the English lightweight’s technical striking and well-rounded output have made him one of the steadier prospects on this entire card. McCracken’s path to victory involves controlling the center of the cage and picking his shots methodically, using volume and accuracy rather than looking for one single knockout blow to close the show.

Silvestre Sanchez brings a stronger overall record into this matchup at 9-1, and his aggressive, forward-moving style gives him a puncher’s chance at any moment during the fight. Sanchez’s best route to the upset comes from pressuring McCracken into mistakes early, forcing exchanges before the more technical striker can find his rhythm and pick him apart from range. Given McCracken’s consistency and superior technical precision, this looks like a fight where the favorite’s price is justified, even against an opponent with a gaudier record and real finishing upside.

Pick: Liam McCracken (-323)

Gabriel Lourenco vs. Charlie Cleveland — Heavyweight

Charlie Cleveland enters as the favorite at -172, and the American heavyweight’s combination of size, power, and finishing instincts have made him a tough test for anyone stepping up in weight class. Cleveland’s clearest path to victory involves using his physical tools early, looking to land heavy shots and close the distance before Lourenco can establish any kind of rhythm on the outside.

Gabriel Lourenco enters at +140 with a deeper 7-1 record and more experience against increasingly difficult competition. The Brazilian’s route to the upset likely comes from using length and volume to keep Cleveland at range, picking him apart with a jab and combinations while avoiding the kind of prolonged exchanges that favor the bigger puncher.

However, in the heavyweight all it takes is one punch to change the trajectory of the fight and that is what Cleveland has. Eventually, Cleveland will land one big shot that will put Lourenco out in round 1.

Pick: Charlie Cleveland (-183)

Hunter Smith vs. Adam Livingston — Lightweight

Adam Livingston enters as the moderate favorite at -162, making his second Contender Series appearance after a previous run through the show. Livingston’s path to victory relies on his aggressive, headhunting style, looking to land the kind of heavy shots that have defined his career and force Smith into defensive mode early in the fight.

Hunter Smith counters with an 8-1 record of his own and a similarly aggressive, forward-pressing approach that should make this a genuine firefight rather than a cagey, tactical affair. Smith’s best route to the upset comes from matching Livingston’s pace and out-landing him in the pocket, using his own volume and durability to absorb the exchanges that most fighters would try to avoid. Given that both men are described as headhunters unwilling to take a step back, this profiles as one of the most explosive matchups on the entire card, and Livingston’s slight favorite status and proven finishing power make him the pick to kick off the show.

Pick: Adam Livingston (-155)