UFC Sacramento Prediction Markets, Picks & Predictions

UFC returns to Sacramento’s Golden 1 Center for a stacked UFC Sacramento main card topped by a pivotal middleweight clash between two ranked contenders, plus a heavyweight fight, a can’t-miss light heavyweight scrap, and two spicy prospects making their UFC-level statements.

Here’s every main card fight broken down with the latest prediction markets and betting odds.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues — Middleweight Main Event

Anthony Hernandez looks to bounce back after a rough setback in his last outing, where he chased down Sean Strickland and came up short. “Fluffy” enters this main event as the clear favorite at -200, and his grappling-heavy style built around relentless top pressure and submission threats has been the calling card of his rise through the middleweight rankings.

Gregory Rodrigues brings real knockout power and a granite chin, giving him a puncher’s chance in almost any matchup, and his ability to walk through adversity has made him a fan favorite. If he walks into that Octagon and lets his presence be known early by shrugging off Hernandez’s takedowns and landing some heavy shots, he will start to pull away. Expect Rodrigues to show improved takedown defense while landing devastating power shots, eventually putting Hernandez away and solidifying a spot inside the top 10.

Pick: Gregory Rodrigues (+168)

Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino

Vitor Petrino enters this heavyweight co-main event as the betting favorite at -156, and his combination of size, aggression, and finishing instincts have made him a tough out for anyone in the division. The Brazilian brings danger everywhere the fight goes, mixing heavy hands with a developing ground game that has produced several highlight-reel finishes throughout his UFC tenure.

Serghei Spivac sits at +132 and brings his own significant power and durability into this fight, with volume that could give Petrino problems if the pace slows down. The best bet on this fight is actually the Petrino moneyline itself, since some books he has one of the cheapest moneylines as a favorite on the entire main card at -156. Given Petrino’s speed and finishing upside against a heavyweight who has had some inconsistent output in recent outings, this looks like one of the more straightforward favorites on the entire card.

Pick: Vitor Petrino (-156)

Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze

Reinier de Ridder enters as a massive favorite at -390, and his combination of elite grappling, granite durability, and surprising volume on the feet have made him an interesting addition to the light heavyweight addition. “RDR” methodically breaks opponents down over the course of a fight, mixing in takedowns and top control with underrated boxing that wears down even durable veterans.

Roman Dolidze counters with legitimate knockout power and a granite chin of his own, and while he’s the clear live underdog at +310, his ability to change levels and land heavy shots keeps him dangerous in any exchange. The method-of-victory props reveal an interesting wrinkle, de Ridder via decision sits at just +130, cheaper than his submission price at +260, suggesting the betting market expects him to grind out rounds rather than tapping Dolidze. Given how significant the moneyline gap already is, de Ridder via decision represents the safer, more likely path to cashing this pick.

Pick: Reinier de Ridder (-390)

MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones

Mason Jones enters this lightweight bout riding a perfect 3-0 UFC stint and sits as the betting favorite at -350. The Welsh standout combines crisp boxing with a versatile ground game, and his undefeated run inside the promotion speaks to how well his overall skill set translates against UFC-level competition.

MarQuel Mederos enters at +230 off a strong 11-1-1 record, and while he’s the underdog on paper, his own unbeaten UFC record at 3-0-1 shows he belongs in these kinds of competitive matchups. The submission prop market tells an interesting story here, Jones winning by submission sits at just +500 compared to Mederos’s own submission price at a lofty +5500, reflecting the market’s clear read that Jones holds a significant grappling advantage in this matchup. Jones’s combination of well-rounded output and a cleaner path to victory across every method of finish makes him a strong favorite worth respecting at -350.

Pick: Mason Jones (-350)

Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves

Carli Judice enters as a heavy favorite at -590, and her significant volume advantage on the feet has been the driving force behind this lopsided line, with her striking output sitting at an eye-popping 9.32 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Chaves’s 4.97. “Crispy” uses that pace to smother opponents and pile up damage over the course of a fight, a strategy that has proven effective throughout her UFC run.

Jeisla Chaves brings toughness and durability into this matchup, and while she’s the significant live underdog at +400, her grappling background gives her at least a theoretical path to disrupting Judice’s rhythm if she can find her hips and change levels. The line has moved even further in Judice’s favor as fight week has progressed, a clear signal that sharp money has continued flowing toward the volume-striking favorite. Given the significant output gap between these two flyweights, Judice’s pace should be the deciding factor over the scorecards.

Pick: Carli Judice (-525) by decision

Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman

Anthony Wint makes his official UFC debut as one of the most lopsided favorites in recent Contender Series graduate history, with the line sitting at an eye-watering -1200. The unbeaten heavyweight (7-0) enters with real speed and knockout power for the division, tools that have made him a near-unanimous pick across every betting market covering this card.

Terrance Chatman enters at +750 as a significant live underdog, and while extreme prices like this rarely offer standalone moneyline value, the method-of-victory props open up more interesting angles. Anthony Wint by KO/TKO sits at -320, a considerably better number than laying the extreme moneyline price outright, giving bettors a way to back the heavy favorite’s most likely path to victory without needing to risk the full -1400. Given Wint’s speed and finishing instincts against an overwhelming size and skill disparity, this profiles as a fast, violent finish for the debuting prospect.

Pick: Anthony Wint by KO/TKO (-320)