Fiziev’s Baku Homecoming Doubles as a Coin-Flip Must-Win Against Torres

Baku is back on the UFC calendar and it’s bringing the heat, six fights, a coin-flip main event, and one of the most anticipated middleweight prospects on the planet headlining the co-main. Here’s everything you need to know before you lock in your bets Saturday at the National Gymnastics Arena.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres — Main Event

This is as close to a coin flip as you’ll see atop a UFC Fight Night card, and the markets reflect it. Rafael Fiziev (13-5) walks out in front of his home country of Kazakhstan, technically fighting in Azerbaijan, carrying tremendous fan support, but his recent form is genuinely concerning. He’s dropped four of his last five, including a first-round KO at the hands of Mauricio Ruffy just five months ago, and two of those losses came in close decisions against lightweight champion Justin Gaethje. The brass ring of the Gaethje bouts is that Fiziev belongs at the elite level stylistically, but his durability in five-round fights against knockout artists has become a serious question mark.

Manuel Torres (17-3) is nicknamed “El Loco” for a reason, the Mexican southpaw switch-hitter has gone 5-1 in the UFC with every single win by KO/TKO, including first-round stoppages of Drew Dober, Ignacio Bahamondes, and Chris Duncan in his last three appearances.

He has 15 first-round finishes across his career and is averaging nearly 5-1 in striking, which makes the prospect of this fight staying on the feet feel very dangerous for Fiziev. The key edge working against Torres is that this will be his first five-round fight; he’s never been out of Round 1 in the UFC, and Fiziev’s technical counter-striking IQ is among the best in the division.

Stylistically, Torres will pressure Fiziev and look to land the overhand left early, while Fiziev will try to manage distance, pick angles, and use his technical footwork to nullify the pressure. The value play here is Torres via KO/TKO on a prop, since it’s hard to see “El Loco” grinding out five rounds if Fiziev survives the early storms.

The Pick: Manuel Torres (-106)

Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira

The co-main event on paper should be an action masterpiece, but Shara “Bullet” Magomedov is a massive betting favorite for good reason. The Dagestani striker (16-1) lands 5.93 significant strikes per minute with 62% accuracy, elite numbers in any weight class, and has 12 career knockouts built on a Muay Thai and Lethwei base that gives him a genuinely unique rhythm. His only UFC loss came against Michael “Venom” Page on the judges’ scorecards in February 2025, a fight many felt was closer than the decision suggested. Since then, Magomedov bounced back with a dominant unanimous decision over Marc-Andre Barriault in July 2025, reinforcing that the Page loss was more a stylistic puzzle than a skills gap.

Michel Pereira (32-14) is one of the more entertaining fighters on the roster, but he’s entering this matchup as a heavy underdog for a stack of reasons. He snapped a three-fight skid with a split decision win over Zachary Reese in February 2026, but prior to that he suffered stoppages and decision losses to Anthony Hernandez and Abus Magomedov, the same Abus Magomedov kicking off the main card. Pereira’s unorthodox switching, spinning attacks, and capoeira-infused style are designed to confuse opponents, but Magomedov is an elite volume striker who doesn’t get flustered easily.

The real intrigue here is whether Pereira’s wild unpredictability can create a single fight-ending moment. Magomedov’s one documented weakness is total strikes defense at 43%, so if Pereira lands something funky in the first 90 seconds, this fight can flip. But the realistic projection is Magomedov walking Pereira down, landing the leg kicks and body shots that have carved opponents up throughout his UFC run, and closing the show in Rounds 2 or 3.

The Pick: Shara Magomedov (-370)

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo

Nazim “Black Wolf” Sadykhov (11-2-1) is an Azerbaijani hometown hero stepping into this bout with some unfinished business after a loss to Fares Ziam snapped a four-fight UFC stoppage streak. Fighting in Baku in front of his home fans is an X-factor that books don’t quantify well; the energy in the building will be enormous for Sadykhov, but his skillset is legit regardless of crowd support. He’s a punishing, pressure-based striker with solid takedown defense and a willingness to trade in phone-booth exchanges, all of which suit this matchup.

Matheus Camilo (10-3) is a scrappy Brazilian lightweight who has shown quality wins on his resume, most notably over Viacheslav Borshchev, and carries real finishing ability. He hits hard for the weight class and will not be intimidated by the hostile environment, but the stylistic matchup is troublesome for him. Sadykhov’s ability to cut off the cage, land heavy combinations, and drain Camilo’s output with pressure is precisely the blueprint to beat a fighter who relies on flash counters and forward momentum.

Both fighters finish their opponents at a high rate, Sadykhov’s four-fight stoppage streak before the Ziam loss showed genuine finishing instinct, and Camilo doesn’t have the wrestling to stall this fight out on the fence. Expect violence early.

The Pick: Nazim Sadykhov (-215)

Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson

This flyweight bout is flying under the radar but deserves significant attention from bettors who pay attention to wrestling metrics. Asu “Zulfikhar” Almabayev (23-3) lands 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, a stunning rate for any weight class, and has turned his UFC tenure into a submission-wrestling clinic, with 10 career wins by submission and a recent decision over Alex Perez that demonstrated world-class mat control. The Kazakh fighter uses a big overhand right to mask his level changes, and once he secures top position, most 125-pounders are riding out a grinding, painful three rounds.

Charles Johnson (19-8) is a legitimately dangerous opponent and the size mismatch is real, he’s 5’9″ with a 70″ reach, making him a giant flyweight who can use his length to keep Almabayev off his hips on the feet. Johnson has wins over Joshua Van, and his volume striking at 4.77 significant strikes per minute means he doesn’t just stand there and get dragged down. The 69% takedown defense number also gives pause to the idea that Almabayev simply walks through him.

Where this fight resolves itself is whether Almabayev can tolerate the pace in the opening 60 seconds and get to the clinch. Johnson loses a lot of his advantage once Almabayev secures the body lock , his tendency to give up his back to scramble back to his feet is a recurring theme in his losses, and against a legit submission artist like Almabayev, that’s a problem.

The Pick: Asu Almabayev (260)

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira

Ikram Aliskerov (17-2) enters this fight in the best form of his UFC career coming into this weekend. The Dagestani sambo world champion, he holds gold at both the World and European sambo championships, has three of his four UFC wins by KO/TKO, all coming in the first round, with an ability to land with devastating accuracy from the southpaw stance. His 64% striking accuracy per UFC stats is elite, and his 100% takedown defense makes him almost impossible to neutralize on the mat. The Robert Whittaker loss in 2024 remains the blemish on his UFC record, but that one came against a former world champion landing the first clean shot of the fight. It’s not a red flag; it’s just the cost of fighting ranked-up elite competition.

Brunno “The Hulk” Ferreira (15-3) is one of the most exciting prospects at middleweight, with a 93% finish rate and an absolute commitment to violence every time he steps in the cage. He’s won nine fights by KO and five by submission, including anaconda chokes and arm triangles that suggest a fully-fledged ground game behind the heavy hands. Coming off a big unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori in his last outing, Ferreira’s confidence is high, and he’s stepping up significantly in competition here.

The problem for Ferreira is that his biggest vulnerabilities, a 51% strike defense and a 61% takedown defense, line up directly with Aliskerov’s best weapons. Aliskerov is faster, more accurate, and more defensively sound on the feet.

The Pick: Ikram Aliskerov (-300)

Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

The closest betting line on the main card belongs to this middleweight bout, where Abus Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk are essentially dead even across every platform. Abus Magomedov (28-7-1 overall, 4-2 UFC) is a tall, technical kickboxer out of Germany who blended striking and wrestling in a dominant decision win over Michel Pereira, the exact same Pereira fighting in the co-main event, in April 2025. He followed that up with a tough loss to Joe Pyfer in October.

Michal Oleksiejczuk (22-9) is a Polish knockout artist who has been in the UFC since 2017 and is notorious for his wide looping hooks and unpredictable overhand right. His UFC career has been a rollercoaster, but when the power is on, he’s finished fighters with genuine elite-level violence. Shara Magomedov beat him by decision back in August 2024, which tells you something about the ceiling, but Oleksiejczuk is most dangerous against fighters who exchange without respect for his power.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk