Du Plessis Battles Usman in for Middleweight Supremacy at UFC Oklahoma City

The UFC’s latest stop in Oklahoma City isn’t just another Fight Night, it’s a crossroads card with real consequences for multiple divisions.

At the top, Dricus Du Plessis looks to get back on track in his return fight against former welterweight king Kamaru Usman, who’s chasing one more run at greatness up a weight class.

On the undercard, Christian Leroy Duncan tries to validate big favorite status against veteran knockout artist Jared Cannonier in the co-main event, while prospects like Chase Hooper, Fatima Kline, Tommy McMillen, and Alberto Montes fight for their next leap up the ladder, making this main card a betting board loaded with angles.

Let’s break down UFC Oklahoma City and see where the value lies and the best picks for each fight!

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman

Dricus Du Plessis walks into this fight as a clear favorite across books and prediction markets, sitting between -199 and -235 on most moneylines with implied win probabilities clustering around 67–70%. “Stillknocks” is coming off losing his middleweight title in a one-sided grapple-fest against Khamzat Chimaev, who took down Du Plessis 12 times and controlled him for 21:40 of the 25-minute affair.

Going up against another credentialed wrestler, Du Plessis must do a better job at defending the initial shot and getting back to his feet. However, while Du Plessis is not the cleanest technician, his cardio, durability, and awkward, pressure-heavy striking style make him incredibly difficult to discourage over 25 minutes, as seen in his wins against the current UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland and former champs Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker.

Kamaru Usman, now at middleweight, is a known commodity with championship experience and a wrestling background to go with it. He’s 21‑4 with extended runs of dominance at welterweight and still owns elite metrics in takedown accuracy, top control, and defensive responsibility. But he’s also on the back side of his career, coming off multiple close, grueling fights, and moving up a division where his usual physical edge is less guaranteed. Prediction markets reflect this. Polymarket has Du Plessis trading at 66¢ while Usman sits at 35¢, suggesting traders see Du Plessis as the minute‑winner more often than the one-shot finisher.

Stylistically, this bout hinges on whether Usman can turn Du Plessis into the fighter he was against Chimaev, stuck on his back and defending takedowns for long stretches, without eating the kind of power that he’s done so to flip fights on numerous occasions.

Kalshi’s method‑of‑finish markets are leaning toward a Du Plessis win by KO/TKO or decision as co-favorites, with “fight ends by decision” trading at 51% implied and Usman by decision at 17%. The consensus supports a 25-minute war rather than a quick finish on either side.

Pick: Dricus Du Plessis

Du Plessis’s combination of youth, size, power, and proven ability to fight through bad positions makes him the rightful favorite, and five rounds give him time to punish Usman’s entries even if he loses early grappling sequences. A Usman upset likely requires an almost perfect control-heavy game, the more chaotic this gets, the more it tilts toward Du Plessis.

Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

When you see a former title challenger like Jared Cannonier sitting near +290 on FanDuel, you’re looking at one of the more aggressive youth‑vs‑experience fades in recent memory. Books and prediction markets are almost unanimous in ranking Christian Leroy Duncan as the rightful heavy favorite, with Polymarket at 78¢ (78% chance) and Kalshi mirroring that split. Duncan’s stock is built on dynamic movement, rangy kickboxing, and a growing ability to mix in takedowns and clinch offense when opponents overextend.

Cannonier, at 42, is still dangerous, his wins over Gregory Rodrigues, Kelvin Gastelum, and Sean Strickland showcased legit power, low‑kick savvy, and durability. But the concern is speed and volume, his output has dipped in recent fights, and he’s struggled when forced to match younger, more mobile strikers over three hard rounds. Duncan’s current profile is essentially “big, fast, and unorthodox,” the exact archetype that tends to tax aging power punchers.

From a market perspective, the interesting wrinkle is that prediction market traders are slightly less bullish on Cannonier than sharp books, around 23–24% implied vs. 25–26 percent from FanDuel, indicating the traders and bettors are more willing to write him off. That usually suggests some value on the dog, but the tape leans heavily toward Duncan’s speed, carrying the day.

Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan

Over three rounds, Duncan’s movement, shot selection, and ability to attack all levels should accumulate damage and widen the gap, even if Cannonier has early moments. If you’re playing this, Duncan inside the distance has some good value at 40% on the prediction markets, rather than laying an enormous moneyline price.

Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez

Chase Hooper’s arc from awkward, lanky featherweight grappler to more polished lightweight grinder has quietly become one of the better developmental stories on the roster. Kalshi and Polymarket both have him at 78¢, roughly aligning with FanDuel’s -350 tag and a 78% implied win probability. That’s aggressive, but it reflects how much his submission game is better than Mitch Ramirez’s at this stage of their careers.

Mitch Ramirez (8‑3) is priced like a classic live underdog with finishing upside. At +280 across books and 23-25¢ prediction‑market pricing, traders are essentially saying he has a puncher’s chance, especially early. Ramirez brings strong boxing fundamentals, some defensive wrestling, and a counter right hand that punishes lazy level changes. The stylistic tension is obvious, Hooper wants to create scrambles and drag fights into prolonged grappling exchanges, whereas Ramirez wants structure and a clean striking affair.

The Kalshi “Hooper vs Ramirez” game markets show about 76-78% confidence in Hooper’s moneyline, with total rounds and finish props suggesting an elevated chance this hits the mat and stays there. For Ramirez, the clearest path is an early strike‑based finish before Hooper adjusts.

Pick: Chase Hooper

Given Hooper’s improved wrestling, plus his advantage in pure grappling transitions, the favorite tag is justified. Ramirez is dangerous, but over three rounds, Hooper should eventually secure dominant positions and finish via submission.

Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline

If you’re looking for the widest favorite on the main card, you find her here, Fatima Kline sits at -490 at FanDuel, with Kalshi and Polymarket both pricing her at 81¢. That’s elite‑prospect respect. Kline enters at 9‑1 with sharp, layered boxing, strong defensive grappling, and the kind of pace that makes most strawweights uncomfortable by the midpoint of Round 2.

Tabatha Ricci is no slouch, she’s a veteran grappler with solid judo, a sneaky top game, and some incremental improvements on the feet. But she’s also undersized and tends to fade when forced into extended striking exchanges against physically stronger opponents. Prediction markets reflect real skepticism regarding her upset chances, Ricci hovers around 19–20% implied.

Stylistically, Kline’s ability to stuff first‑layer takedowns and reset in open space feels decisive. Ricci’s best moments are likely to come when she can drive Kline to the fence and chain trips into mat exchanges; if Kline keeps this in the center, her jab, straight right, and body work should control the scorecards.

Pick: Fatima Kline

The market expects a Kline win, and the tape suggests it happens via pace and clean striking rather than a quick finish. Ricci’s toughness and grappling savvy should be enough to survive, but not enough to consistently win seconds and minutes against a more dynamic athlete.

Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes

This is the closest fight on the main card from a market standpoint, and it’s exactly the type of matchup where prediction markets can sharpen your view. Books lean slightly toward the undefeated Tommy McMillen (10‑0) at -166, but Kalshi and Polymarket are more conservative, pricing him at 61–62% implied. That gap signals some skepticism about the level of competition and McMillen’s lack of defense in his last fight.

McMillen profiles as a well‑rounded, pressure‑based featherweight, solid boxing combinations, opportunistic takedowns, and cardio that holds up through three hard rounds. Alberto Montes (11‑1), however, brings proven finishing upside and has already answered questions against a UFC vet in his debut win against Ricky Turcios before stepping into this spot. Kalshi’s 40¢ on Montes shows traders are willing to side with the known power, submissions, and experience rather than the undefeated record.

On tape, Montes is the sharper striker in pure exchanges, with cleaner defense and better shot selection on counters. McMillen’s edge is volume and wrestling transitions; if he can force Montes to defend multiple phases per exchange, his path to overwhelming him opens up. But whenever this fight sits at range, Montes appears to have the more dangerous tools.

Pick: Alberto Montes

Given how modest the market gap is, taking the more proven power puncher at plus money is a reasonable position. McMillen is legitimately good, but Montes’s experience and striking craft make him live everywhere, especially if he can limit prolonged clinch exchanges.