Conor McGregor’s Return Meets BMF Max Holloway at UFC 329 With Holloway a Clear Favorite

International Fight Week doesn’t get bigger than this. Conor McGregor, the biggest star this sport has ever seen, who hasn’t stepped in the octagon in five years, is facing Max Holloway, the most prolific volume striker in the UFC history.

Every fight on this card has real teeth, and the market is wide open on at least three of the five main card bouts at UFC 329.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2 — Main Event

The consensus is loud, the market is giving McGregor roughly a 30% shot at pulling off what would be one of the biggest returns in MMA history.

“The Notorious” Conor McGregor (22-6) has been out since his broken leg stoppage loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021, that’s five calendar years of inactivity, one surgical reconstruction, and an entirely different sport-at-large by the time the cage door opens. His last win in the octagon was a 40-second destruction of Donald Cerrone in January 2020.

Max Holloway (27-9) is the argument against the +215 price being as attractive as it looks at face value. “Blessed” holds the all-time UFC record for most significant strikes landed with 3,681 and counting, and his pressure-heavy “death by a thousand cuts” style is the exact nightmare scenario for a fighter returning after a half-decade away.

This five-round fight turns this into a cardio question as much as a skills one, McGregor’s gas tank over 25 minutes has never been tested at this level, and Holloway’s cardio is the single most documented elite attribute in his game.

The one genuine path to +215 for McGregor is his legendary left hand, now with welterweight mass behind it. His significant striking accuracy at 56% is still legitimately elite, and Holloway’s chin has been tested before; he was knocked out by Ilia Topuria, and was dropped by Dustin Poirier.

If McGregor lands one clean counter left hand in the first two rounds, the size advantage at 170 could put Holloway down in a way featherweight McGregor never could. But the five-round affair, the layoff, and the volume threat all trend heavily toward Holloway winning this fight on work rate alone.

Pick: Max Holloway (-260)

Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis

This is the most competitive fight on the main card and the best betting value on the entire card by a wide margin.

Paddy Pimblett (23-4) is coming off his first UFC loss, an interim lightweight title shot against Justin Gaethje at UFC 324 in January, which should recalibrate his ceiling for some bettors, but also his motivation. “The Baddy” is a legitimate grappler with a submission game that quietly outperforms the highlight-reel moments, and his ability to be competitive on the feet gives him multiple paths to win.

Benoit Saint Denis (17-3) enters riding a four-fight winning streak after finishing Dan Hooker by KO/TKO with punches and elbows from full mount at UFC 325 in January 2026, a performance that cemented him as a legitimate top-five threat.

“God of War” is a complete fighter at 30 years old, with seven first-round finishes, 10 career submission wins, and a 5’11” frame that gives him a physical edge against Pimblett. His primary strength is his relentless grappling pressure combined with elite wrestling, he shoots, he walls, he drags fights into deep water.

The -146 for Saint Denis reflects the market’s view that he wins this fight by grappling, and the 47¢ / 45¢ lines on Kalshi and Polymarket confirm how razor-thin this is. Pimblett’s guard is real, his chin is real, and he thrives when fights get ugly, the question is whether Saint Denis can impose his wrestling in the first round before Pimblett locks up a submission.

Pick: Paddy Pimblett (+124)

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista

Seven years after Sandhagen tapped Bautista out with a first-round armbar in 2019, these two are running it back in one of the most intriguing rematch narratives on this card.

Cory “The Sandman” Sandhagen (18-6) is the creative genius of the bantamweight division, flying knees, spinning heels, no defense ever quite anticipates what he’s throwing next, but his recent record reflects an uneven path that includes losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and current champion Petr Yan.

Mario Bautista (17-3) has become a completely different fighter since that 2019 loss. He’s put together nine wins in his last 10 fights, most recently a submission finish of Vinicius Oliveira in February 2026. He lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute to Sandhagen’s 4.86, shoots nearly double the takedowns (1.91 vs. 1.15), and carries a career 41% submission win rate that makes his grappling multi-dimensional.

The market has this closer than some may think. At +116 on FanDuel, Bautista represents genuine value, the betting market hasn’t fully caught up to how dangerous he is after his Oliveira performance, and Sandhagen’s inconsistency against elite-level opposition is a documented vulnerability. Sandhagen’s striking creativity is real, but Bautista has the physical tools and the submission game to neutralize it.

Pick: Mario Bautista (+116)

Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Brandon Royval

Lone’er Kavanagh (10-1) walked into 2026 as one of MMA’s most compelling rising stories, a 27-year-old Brit who knocked off former champion Brandon Moreno on short notice in February, using sharp kicks and explosive counters to neutralize a compromised opponent and put himself into the flyweight title conversation. His 94% takedown defense in the UFC through his first few fights is a genuine outlier, and his counter-striking at distance gives him a legitimate path to stopping Royval’s forward pressure.

Brandon Royval (17-9) is what the industry means when it talks about “a dangerous fighter with a bad record”. He’s fought virtually everyone at the top of the flyweight division, carries legitimate KO and submission threats in every round, and lands 5.54 significant strikes per minute. The losses on his record tend to come against elite-tier opponents in close fights, not because he’s a bad fighter.

However, the books are right to install Kavanagh as the moderate favorite, and the Polymarket crowd at 67¢ is reflecting the gap in athleticism. Royval’s biggest liability is a 45% takedown defense that Kavanagh, despite not being a traditional wrestler, can theoretically exploit through his wrestling credentials. The smartest path for Royval is a grinding, high-output pressure approach that drains Kavanagh’s cardio, which showed a noticeable dip in the second half of his fights.

Pick: Lone’er Kavanagh (-215)

King Green vs. Terrance McKinney

Every number on this fight is screaming coinflip, and for once the markets are telling the truth. King Green (35-17-1) brings the most professional experience on the main card with 53 fights, a three-fight winning streak including dominant performances over Daniel Zellhuber and Jeremy Stevens, and the kind of fluid, unorthodox boxing that neutralizes straight-line attackers. At 39 years old, Green is fighting at an elite level despite the age question, his footwork and head movement inside the cage remain legitimately excellent.

Terrance “T-Wrecks” McKinney (18-8) is one of the few fighters in the UFC who genuinely hasn’t been outside the first round in nearly seven consecutive fights. That’s not hyperbole, he either finishes opponents or gets finished in the opening frame, and his 6.53 significant strikes landed per minute is the most important statistical stat he carries into this fight against a man who allows his opponents to land only 38% of their strikes. McKinney’s explosive striking, jumping knees, and power from all limbs from represent every problem that aging finesse fighters typically develop cracks against.

McKinney’s 3-inch reach advantage, younger legs, and ability to short-circuit Green’s boxing game with explosive forward pressure is the logical path to victory. Green wins if he can impose his range work and get to Rounds 2 and 3, the longer this fight goes, the better Green looks.

Pick: Terrance McKinney (-110)